Why Tim Draper stands by his 2018 prediction for $ 250K Bitcoin

The world’s leading cryptocurrency is sinking under the same pressure of record-breaking inflation plunging the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) has shown a gloomy jump in inflation of 9.1% from year to year, the highest in more than 40 years.

Federal Reserve moves to tighten monetary policy, creating more uncertainty in cryptocurrency, and demand for Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has fallen. Bitcoin has lost 70% of its value since its all-time high of $ 69,000 in November 2021. According to Coinmarketcap, Bitcoin’s market value has fallen from nearly $ 800 billion to below $ 400 billion.

Billionaire investor and “fairytale capitalist” Tim Draper has had an enviable race to identify and invest in the technology that shapes our future. Draper has invested in a number of well-known successes in technology, including Baidu, Hotmail, Skype, Tesla, SpaceX, AngelList, SolarCity, Ring, Twitter, DocuSign, Coinbase, Robinhood, Ancestry.com, Twitch, Cruise Automation and Focus Media. Draper is a staunch supporter of Bitcoin and has made long-term price predictions he stands by.

In 2014, Draper predicted that Bitcoin would reach $ 10,000 within three years – it did so in November 2017. In 2018, when Bitcoin hung around $ 8000, Draper came up with what seemed like a hyperbolic prediction at the time, saying it would reach $ 250,000 by the end of 2022 or early 2023.

Even in the cool climate of this crypto winter, Draper stands by his prediction. We interviewed Draper on our Benzinga web show, Web3 Anarchy, a few days ago and share his insights here. As always with Draper, the big picture is not just following the numbers – it’s about assessing the technology behind the price and the potential to change the world for the better.

BZ: Was this decline in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies predictable?

“I think this was a bit predictable. Because when there is inflation, the Fed has to raise interest rates. So the stock market will fall. And with that, all the speculators will go out of the cryptocurrency world.”

What impact do you expect the crypto bear market to have on the blockchain world?

“I think what we have left in the cryptocurrency world are the other true believers. And all a lot of the speculation has come out of it. And the true believers are thinking, yes, this is the future, in particular, Bitcoin is the future of currency, the future of banking. , the future of finance.I think we were about to go through an anthropological leap.We almost had it with the internet.We had almost jumped with the Internet.But then, when cryptocurrencies appeared, the authorities decided that they would go back to to be control freaks instead of allowing the freedom they need to allow. “
What do you mean by an “anthropological leap” forward?

“We have an uphill battle right now, but in the long run technology is always winning. I think we will see a real change in the way the world works.

I can imagine a time when I can raise a fund entirely in Bitcoin, invest everything in Bitcoin, and let entrepreneurs pay their employees everything in Bitcoin, and offer all this on a number of smart contracts that keep a perfect overview. These entrepreneurs have perfect insight into what is happening in their businesses because the accounts are happening in real time. The taxes are paid in real time.

There are so many things that can be done better now that we have Bitcoin. “
You do not think a clear regulatory framework is needed to stabilize the crypto market?

“Within the US government’s regulatory framework, we’ll be 40 years behind El Salvador. I met a bunch of El Salvador officials working with the president on their Bitcoin strategy. I was jealous. I could not believe it. far they were in mind.They have smart contracts everywhere.They have people who pay with Bitcoin, pay taxes with Bitcoin, and the system works.

That government will be 40 years ahead when we get a set of rules for this. We have a bunch of 70-year-olds sitting and talking about something they know nothing about. “

Don’t you think Nancy Pelosi will get Bitcoin?

“I do not think she has Bitcoin. It’s not just Nancy. The entire Senate is 70 years old. And the average owner of a Bitcoin wallet is probably 30.

The good news is, people my age are dying out. And this 30-year-old group is going to change the nature of the world. The world is going to open up. We will have a decentralized world. The borders will crumble over time, and people will be able to move from country to country very easily. And in the end, we all want to be citizens of this great world, and we want a currency that can be used anywhere. “

Isn’t price volatility a challenge to the usefulness of Bitcoin as a currency?

“One bitcoin is still worth a Bitcoin. It always will be. It is not Bitcoin that is volatile. It is the other currencies … and it is a big move away from fiat. When I can buy food, clothes and shelter in Bitcoin, then there is “There will be no reason for anyone to hold on to a currency that is inflated and linked to the whims of the government, and which is controlled by one and is only available in that country and only useful in a number of countries, but not all. Bitcoin is frictionless, decentralized and controlled by no one. “

In 2018, when Bitcoin was right at $ 8,000, you predicted that it would reach $ 250,000 by the end of 2022 or early 2023. Do you still stick to that prediction?

“Yes, absolutely. In 2014, Bitcoin was $ 180, and I predicted on Fox Business News that Bitcoin would reach $ 10,000 in three years. Three years later, almost today, Bitcoin reached $ 10,000. Then Bitcoin fell to $ 4,000 in 2018, and I came up with the $ 250,000 prediction by 2022 or early 2023. I will stand by that.

Women control 80% of retail spending. And they only have about one in six Bitcoin wallets now. It was one of 14, and now it is one of six. There will be a moment when dealers say, wait, no, we want your Bitcoin … And when that starts to happen, it will start to be a race on fiat currencies, and $ 250,000 could be conservative. “

Do you see this as a case where traditional finance pulls down crypto?

“There will always be a lot of cycles and people jumping in and then jumping out when you have a trend that is really taking off. You will see Bitcoin, and all kinds of cryptocurrencies are jumping up and down. And there will be speculation that this is the end of the world. Every time you start hearing it in the press, it’s when you go in big. “

Do you have any advice for investors who are hard hit by the downturn?

“What can give you hope is that the dot-com bust felt like the end of the world, and some of the biggest companies in the world came out of it. I think the same thing is going to happen with Bitcoin.”

Summary

Draper brings the point of view of a true believer in technology to invest. He goes beyond the simple rise and fall of prices to look at the potential of projects based on how they can help people live better lives. It is an important perspective to consider, whether the companies you buy into, inside and outside the crypto world, become anonymous rows of names and tickers or coins.

While many would be surprised to see Bitcoin take a meteoric rise to $ 250,000, it indicates nothing more than that the potential Draper is betting on has not yet been realized. To be honest, it took the vision to see a price of $ 10,000 or $ 69,000 for Bitcoin. If his prediction for 2018 is as reliable as his prediction for 2014, we are on a wild, technological journey in a world-changing world.

Cover image of Perez Vöcking from Pixabay.