Who will be PayPal’s next CEO? Here are 7 candidates

On February 9, the same day that PayPal reported its fourth quarter results, PayPal announced that CEO Dan Schulman would retire at the end of 2023, in December. PayPal’s new CEO has some big shoes to fill. Under CEO Schulman, a 65-year-old former American Express executive who joined the company in 2014 (just before it split from eBay), PayPal’s revenue nearly tripled to $27.5 billion by 2022, while market capitalization growth has outpaced the S&P 500 .Total payment volume during Schulman’s tenure grew fivefold from $288 billion in 2015 to $1.36 trillion in 2022.

The good times continued into 2020, but as the pandemic began to subside in 2021, so did PayPal’s results; net income was almost flat in 2021 compared to the previous year, while revenue grew just 18%. But in 2022, PayPal’s results were reduced even more. Revenues increased by 8.4% while profits fell by almost 42%. Although other fintechs have also seen their fortunes turn around, PayPal trades at just 10 times enterprise value to EBITDA, versus 23 times for Block (the company formerly known as Square), and 34 times for Adyen. “[PayPal] grew very fast and now they are not. A lot of companies have pandemic hangovers,” said Christopher Brendler, senior research analyst at DA Davidson & Co. Brendler pointed to the devastating loss of eBay as one big blow — its former parent switched to Adyen as its primary payment processor in mid-2020.

Dan Dolev, senior fintech equity analyst at Mizuho Securities USA, believes PayPal needs a big brand name to combat the perception that it is a “melting ice cube.” PayPal is “definitely not killing it in terms of their performance,” he added. Investors have come to him concerned that PayPal might pick someone internally, Dolev said. There’s also concern that PayPal will use its upcoming investor day — which hasn’t been set but is expected at the end of the second quarter — to introduce someone it’s considering, Dolev said. “The fear is that they have someone in mind and are using Investor Day as a soft introduction,” he said. Those who have followed PayPal closely may recall that its investor day was the site of a major misstep in February 2021, when then-CFO John Rainey said he expected PayPal to reach 750 million active users by 2025. The company was forced to revert to those expectations several months later.

Given that Schulman is staying on through December, the search is still in the early stages and PayPal’s board has not yet engaged an outside search firm, Fortune have learned. But there is already a lot of talk about who PayPal can – or should – turn to. To compile our list of possible contenders, Fortune spoke with private equity executives in the payments space, CEOs of rival companies, analysts and venture capitalists. Our list is intended to include managers who could be considered for the role – but of course that doesn’t necessarily mean they would take it if offered. Fortune contacted all the individuals named for comment, but all either declined or did not respond by press time.

Sarah Friar

An early favorite is Sarah Friar, who spent nearly seven years as CFO of Square before leaving, in December 2018, to join Nextdoor, the hyperlocal social networking service for neighbors. Nextdoor went public by combining with a special purpose acquisition company, or SPAC, nearly three years later, in November 2021. Like many de-SPAC mergers, Nextdoor has performed poorly in the public markets. The company has yet to trade above $10, the number SPACs typically go for, and closed Thursday at $2.18 a share.

Friar also spent 11 years at Goldman Sachs where she was a senior software analyst as well as a year at Salesforce.com as senior vice president, finance and strategy, according to her LinkedIn. “Sarah is a strong name. I’m a fan. She has the Silicon Valley credentials that matter to PayPal,” said one payments executive. DA Davidson fintech analyst Chris Brendler said Friar would be “fantastic” as PayPal’s CEO. Friar left Square for Nextdoor because she wanted to be CEO, said he. “She’s well-regarded by the Street,” he said. A private equity executive said PayPal needs a leader who understands payments. “People love Sarah Friar, so it’s possible,” the person said.

Max Levchin

Only one executive has the knowledge and Wall Street cache to lead PayPal, Mizuho’s Dolev said. He pointed to Max Levchin, the founder and CEO of Affirm, who is also a PayPal co-founder and its former chief technology officer. (Levchin, along with Peter Thiel and Elon Musk, launched PayPal in 1998. Thiel is currently a general partner at The Founders Fund and helped launch Palantir Technologies, where he is chairman. Musk, co-founder and CEO of Tesla, acquired Twitter for $44 billion by 2022.)

Levchin is the same leader as Jack Dorsey, co-founder and former CEO of Twitter, as well as co-founder, CEO and chairman of Block, but more grounded, Dolev said. “He’s like the Elon Musk of payments. But he clearly runs Affirm. If he wasn’t, in a hypothetical world, the market would be excited about him, Dolev said.

Peggy Marie Alford

Still others believe PayPal will look internally for its next CEO. They mentioned Peggy Marie Alford, who returned to PayPal in March 2019 and is now executive vice president of global sales. Alford spent nearly two years, from 2017 to 2019, as chief financial officer and chief operating officer of the Chan Zuckerberg Initiative, the philanthropic foundation started by Mark Zuckerberg and his wife Priscilla. Prior to that, Alford held several positions at PayPal, including vice president and chief financial officer, Americas, global credit and global products; head office-Asia Pacific & global head-cross border trade; and SVP, head of human resources, personnel operations and global cross-border trade.

“Peggy has the best chance. PayPal will be looking for an insider who understands more of the consumer side of the business, said an executive at a fast-growing rival payments company.

John Rainey

A former PayPal insider who is likely to be considered is John Rainey, who joined Walmart as executive vice president and chief financial officer in June. However, it is not very likely that Rainey is on the market. The leader likes to stay in places for a while before moving on. He spent nearly eight years at PayPal, where he was CFO and EVP, global customer operations, and five years at United Airlines, where his last position was executive vice president and CFO. Rainey spent another 13 years at Continental Airlines as vice president of financial planning and analysis, according to his LinkedIn. Rainey is a “nice guy, really good CFO,” said one former PayPal employee.

But it was Rainey who gave PayPal the “oops” moment when he said in February 2021 that the company would reach 750 million active users by 2025. A year later, Rainey said those ambitions were not appropriate.

Oliver Jenkyn

Both Visa and Mastercard have undergone new management changes, but whether PayPal will choose its next manager from both companies is unclear. Ryan McInerney officially took over as Visa CEO on Feb. 1, replacing Alfred Kelly Jr, who became executive chairman, according to a statement. This means Oliver Jenkyn, a longtime Visa executive, may seek another position. Jenkyn has worked at Visa for more than 14 years in various roles, including corporate president and president, North America. Most recently, he was named CEO of Global Markets in February, his LinkedIn said. “He’s had quite a successful track record [at Visa]”, said a current Visa employee.

Linda Kirkpatrick

Mastercard in 2020 tapped Michael Miebach, then chief product officer, to succeed Ajay Banga as CEO. (Banga left Mastercard in late 2021 to join private equity firm General Atlantic where he is currently a vice chairman. On Thursday, President Joseph Biden nominated Banga to be the next president of the World Bank, according to a statement.) One fintech chief pointed to Linda Kirkpatrick, who is Mastercard’s president, North America, as a potential successor when Miebach has to step down. The thing is, Miebach has done well during his two years at the helm of Mastercard and could last another eight to ten years. Kirkpatrick has spent nearly 26 years at Mastercard and is “on the fast track,” noted a former Mastercard executive. While Kirkpatrick is “waiting in the wings,” it is unclear whether she will consider jumping to another firm.

Bill ready

It would be strange for PayPal to pick its next executive from Visa or Mastercard, DA Davidson’s Brendler said. He believes the company will likely choose someone with a technology background rather than a traditional payments background. He pointed Bill readyCEO of Pinterest, and a former PayPal executive, as “an ideal candidate.”

Ready is the ex-CEO of Braintree, a payment gateway, which, along with Venmo, was sold to PayPal in 2013. He spent six years at PayPal, including more than three as EVP & Chief Operating Officer, before jumping to Google in 2020 where his last title was president of commerce, payments and the next billion users. Ready joined Pinterest as CEO in June 2022.

“Bill Ready is a hot name, but he’s pinned on Pinterest,” said Dolev of Mizuho.

Just the mention of Ready as head of PayPal is likely to ignite rumors of a Pinterest merger. In October 2021, Bloomberg reported that PayPal was exploring a $45 billion acquisition of the social media company, but the deal never went through. Some believe a PayPal/Pinterest merger will solve problems for both companies. Pinterest has online audience but no payments while PayPal has payments but no online discovery. “These two companies are missing important components. If they come together it makes a lot of sense,” an analyst said.

Follow along to see who PayPal chooses – and passes.