Which Bitcoin Bear Market? BTC price closely copying old halving cycles
Bitcoin (BTC) price action is on track to seal new all-time highs, new data suggests.
A suite of price metrics from on-chain research firm Glassnode released on April 11 suggests that Bitcoin’s current halving cycle is playing out in classic style.
The BTC price is very similar to previous halving cycles
With BTC/USD up over 70% in 2023 and far from the November 2022 low of $15,600, analysts are already considering the role of next year’s block support halving.
Set to cut the amount of BTC miners “mint” per block from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, the upcoming halving represents an emissions reduction exactly like others that came before it.
Bets therefore increase due to the impact on Bitcoin price performance, also copying previous halvings, with the event itself serving as a springboard for all-time highs.
A look at Glassnode’s numbers underscores the similarities of the current halving cycle to previous ones. Despite relatively muted percentage gains, BTC/USD is now trending higher after what increasingly appears to be a bear market bottom.
Tracking price action since the recent high also places this cycle well within historical context.
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Meanwhile, i analysis late last month data resource Ecoinometrics offered an additional insight into recent performance.
New all-time highs are also shallow, it was agreed, apart from a macroeconomic recession that distorts the roadmap.
“Bitcoin’s price action suggests a bottom has formed, but with a global recession looming, it is too early to assume,” it reasoned.
“Economic uncertainty will increase demand for safe havens, but Bitcoin still trades very much like a risk asset.”
Up to just $180,000?
As Cointelegraph reported, belief that the halving cycle in 2024 will continue the good times has not gone anywhere during the recent bear market.
Related: Bitcoin 2022 bear market ‘regular’ despite loss of key trendline — analyst
Filbfilb, co-founder of trading suite Decentrader, recently doubled down on his belief that Bitcoin’s all-time high next cycle will come in 2025 and see a BTC price tag of around $180,000.
He noted, however, that as time goes on, Bitcoin price gains will see a “tapering effect” — smaller comparative gains in percentage terms with each cycle.
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