What these Bitcoin [BTC] calculations reveal about its current position

• Bitcoin’s performance in February reveals that investors are optimistic about the long-term outlook.
• Bitcoin has gotten off to a bullish start, but stock supply suggests that some more selling pressure could dampen the short-term rally.

Bitcoin [BTC] just wound up the shortest month of the year over the end of January, close despite more uncertainty in February. Now the big question for most traders is whether it will maintain the bullish bias or continue to give in to the bears.

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Bitcoin’s performance in February may provide some insight into the cryptocurrency market’s current state and expectations for March. BTC’s supply of surplus was down to 67% at the end of February, after peaking at 72.2% in the same month.

This decline confirms that there was ample accumulation near the recent highs with the expectation that prices will remain. It also confirms that most of the current owners bought in January.

Source: CryptoQuant

In contrast, the current level of Bitcoin supply in profit remains above the lowest level of the last four weeks. The increase in profits bottomed out at 63.99% during the month. This means that there is still room for more downside before it reaches the assumed bottom range below 45%. The glass-half-full view suggests there is plenty of room for more upside before the peak of the bull cycle.

In terms of the value of Bitcoin issued on a daily basis, the Puell multiple fell to its lowest monthly level on February 25. The value at the lowest point was 0.67, therefore indicating relative strength among the BTC holders.

Source: CryptoQuant

Bitcoin’s peak Puell multiple number was 1.19 in mid-February. This means that it was well below the level considered euphoria, but the lower range was also not in the capitulation range. These findings further add to the evidence suggesting that investors maintained an upbeat sentiment in February.

Can Bitcoin Sustain Optimism?

So far, the market has maintained a degree of optimism, as was the case with most investors holding out for long-term gains. However, the FOMC’s next meeting, which will take place later this month, could determine the next big outcome. Sentiment at press time expects the FED to raise interest rates slightly. Such a move could trigger some market FUD and send Bitcoin potentially below $20,000 again.

The economic die has not yet been rolled; therefore, it is not guaranteed that the expected FED rate hike will take place. Bitcoin started March with a bit of a rally as it tries to bounce off the RSI intermediate range.

Source: TradingView

How much is 1,10,100 BTC worth today?

Bitcoin achieved a 2.63% rally in the last 24 hours, but MFI indicates that it is experiencing outflows. A look at the Bitcoin exchange flows confirmed that the exchange supply was higher than the exchange at the time of writing.

Source: CryptoQuant

These higher exchange outflows may give way to the bears in the short term unless a shift in demand occurs.