These dates will be important for Bitcoin, Crypto this week
After the last few weeks were filled with important new macro data and statements from the Federal Reserve (Fed), this week will be much quieter and less filled with important data that could affect the Bitcoin and crypto markets. Nevertheless, crypto investors should keep in mind some economic and financial data this trading week.
Especially as Bitcoin has returned to its correlation with the US stock indices and the dollar index (DXY), the price may be affected by this news.
Over the weekend, Bitcoin briefly corrected to a new 12-day low of $22,775, but still managed to end the week above $23,300. The new week will have to show whether the upward trend that has persisted since January will continue or whether there will be a deeper correction.
This will be important for Bitcoin and Crypto
While there are many data releases coming up again this week, as Walter Bloomberg reported in the following tweet, Bitcoin investors should focus on a few data releases that could actually have a noticeable impact on price. This is the release of Consumer Confidence on Tuesday and the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) on Wednesday and Friday.
Scheduled financial releases for the week of February 27, 2023 pic.twitter.com/598EhpQ714
— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) 25 February 2023
On Tuesday, February 28, the Conference Board (CB) will release January US consumer confidence figures at 10:00 AM EST. The figure came in at 107.1 in January, below expectations of 109. For the month of February, analysts expect a slight increase to 108.5.
The textbook theory is that a decline in consumer sentiment should lead to looser monetary policy to increase spending on durable goods, while rising consumer confidence should result in a tightening of monetary policy.
Thus, the US Dollar Index (DXY) may continue its upward movement from last week if the forecast is met or even exceeded. This is likely to have a negative impact on price performance in the crypto and Bitcoin markets, as it did last trading week.
On the other hand, it is doubtful whether the textbook theory will play out if consumer confidence is lower than expected, as this also increases the likelihood of a recession in the US. Still, Bitcoin may see a brief uptick as the Fed may slow down in its intention for a 50 basis point (bps) hike.
PMI on Wednesday and Friday
On Wednesday, March 1, the US Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for the manufacturing sector will be released at 10:00 AM EST. The estimate for February is for a reading of 48.0, with the index at 47.4 in January, below the forecast of 48.0. The crypto market then rose on the back of a drop in DXY.
The US Federal Reserve, chaired by Jerome Powell, is likely to watch the PMI quite closely as they look to prevent further negative developments in manufacturing. A higher-than-expected PMI, on the other hand, could reinforce the Fed’s hawkish stance and put pressure on the Bitcoin price.
Friday 3 On March the US Purchasing Managers’ Index for the service sector in the US is released, which has been of particular interest to the Fed recently. In January, the PMI for the services sector was 55.2, well above the expectation of 50.4. As a result, DXY strengthened significantly and crypto fell.
A similar scenario can be expected this week. For the month of February, experts predict a slight decline to 54.5, and if the index returns above expectations, DXY is likely to rise further, sending Bitcoin lower. A reading below expectations could drive the Bitcoin price higher.
The underlying reason is that the services sector has recently decoupled from other sectors such as industry and real estate and has proven to be much more resilient. If the service sector were also to weaken, this would actually be a positive surprise, as it would increase the likelihood of falling inflation in the coming months.
At press time, the BTC price stood at $23,429.
Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView.com
