The report suggests that Bitcoin will peak in 2024, but here’s whether winter is over or not
There are several factors that may indicate that the crypto market is entering a new phase of growth. For example, the recent surge in interest in non-fungible tokens (NFTs) has shown the potential for cryptocurrencies to be used in new and innovative ways. In addition, the growing number of countries and institutions exploring the creation of their own digital currencies may indicate a growing acceptance of cryptocurrency as a legitimate form of money.
As we approach the midpoint of 2023, many cryptocurrency investors and enthusiasts wondering if the so-called “crypto winter” is over. For those who are not familiar with the term crypto winter refers to a prolonged period of decline in cryptocurrency prices that began in late in 2017 and lasted well into 2018 and 2019.
During this time, many cryptocurrencies lost over 90 percent of their value, and overall the market capitalization of the crypto space shrank significantly. The crypto winter was one brutal time for investors and enthusiasts, and many began to wonder about the whole the crypto industry was doomed to fail.
However, in 2020 and 2021, the crypto market started to pick up again. Bitcoin, the largest and most famous cryptocurrency, surpassed its previous record high of nearly $20,000 in in late 2020 and reached a new all-time high of over $60,000 in early 2021. Other cryptocurrencies, such as Ethereum, also experienced significant gains during this time.
Valuation area
A recent media report reported that the popular cryptocurrency – bitcoin – could now 100,000 dollars by the end of 2024, according to the Standard Chartered report.
The fluctuations in cryptocurrency valuations have been as volatile as yours and mine mood swings. No one seems to agree with anyone else on why the crypto price is moves higher. Making a prediction about the value of a currency that is still seen as one outsider of global financial regulators is a challenge. At the same time this week, a senior A US regulator was quoted as mentioning that anonymity of Crypto assets is financing illegal activities.
So it’s more confusing that there are regulatory concerns and open issues ahead solutions. And in parallel, crypto prices are trending upwards. On one side the fresh bull run has certainly been impressive and many cryptocurrencies have seen significant gains the last year or so. Bitcoin in particular has once again become a mainstream topic conversation, with large companies and institutional investors now engaging in outer space.
Institutional acceptance
One of the key indicators of a healthy market is the level of institutional adoption. While there has been some progress in this area, with large financial institutions and companies investing in cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology, there is still a long way to go.
Many institutional investors are still hesitant to enter the market due to the lack of regulatory clarity and high volatility. Until there is a more stable and regulated market, it is unlikely that there will be a significant increase in institutional adoption.
Finance Act
Specifically, for Bitcoin, economics can help them with price boosters. Bitcoin can be on the rise due to May 2024 the next Bitcoin halving milestone.
Bitcoin halving is when the reward for mining new Bitcoin blocks is cut to half of the current one levels. This event has been programmed by the bitcoin founder to happen every 210,000 blocks (on average to every 4 years). This has been an artificial inflation adjustment which Bitcoin has in its algorithm. Cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin have a limited supply,
with a maximum of 21 million Bitcoins that can ever exist. This scarcity can contribute to an increase in price as people compete to buy a limited amount of coins.
The last halving of Bitcoin happened in May 2020 and its impact on its pricing has been a topic of much debate in the cryptocurrency community. Data show that the previous two halvings have been followed by significant increases in Bitcoin prices Inflation
Inflation has been a major concern for many individuals and institutions around the world. As central banks continue to print money and inject it into the economy, the value of fiat currencies are eroded. This has led to many looking for alternative shops value, such as cryptocurrencies. Unlike traditional currencies, cryptocurrencies are not subject to inflation because their supply is limited by design.
Other forms of acceptance
Furthermore, there are several factors that may indicate that the crypto market is entering a new phase of growth. For example, the recent surge in interest in non-fungible tokens (NFTs) have shown the potential for cryptocurrencies to be used in new and innovative ways. In addition, there is the growing number of countries and institutions that explore the creation of their own digital currencies may indicate a growing acceptance of cryptocurrency as a legitimate form of money.
Cryptocurrencies are seen by many as an attractive alternative to geopolitical risk. Because cryptocurrencies are decentralized and not subject to the actions of anyone in particular government or institution, they can offer a degree of stability in uncertain times. This is a thesis that only a few categories of investors with a higher perception of risk can manage.
Official acceptance?
But are the regulatory concerns over the issue of cryptocurrency over?
Cryptocurrencies have been a hot topic in the financial world in recent years, and with good reason. While some people see cryptocurrencies as a revolutionary new way to carry out transactions, others see them as a dangerous and unregulated market that could lead to financial instability. Regulatory concerns regarding cryptocurrencies have been expressed by many governments and financial institutions, including the international The Monetary Fund (IMF) and the G20.
One of the biggest regulatory concerns regarding cryptocurrencies is the lack of openness. In contrast to traditional financial markets, which are regulated by various government agencies, cryptocurrencies are largely unregulated. This means that it exists no one monitors the market to ensure it is fair and transparent.
The global financial regulators and institutions such as the IMF have warned that cryptocurrencies could pose a threat to financial stability if they were to become more widespread. It fears that cryptocurrencies are highly volatile and can lead to instability in the market, if their prices should suddenly fall. Many have expressed concern about the potential for cryptocurrencies to be used for illegal activities, and called for greater regulation of market.
Similarly, the G20 has also expressed concern about the regulatory implications of cryptocurrencies. In a recent statement, the G20 called for greater regulation of the market to ensure that it is fair and transparent. With cryptocurrencies still in the early stages of development, there is a need for greater clarity around their legal status and regulations framework.
While some countries, such as Japan and Switzerland, have taken steps to regulate market, others have been more cautious. The United States, for example, has not yet done so provide clear guidance on the legal status of cryptocurrencies, leaving investors uncertain about their rights and obligations. Until there is greater clarity from regulators all around world, it will be difficult for the market to fully recover.
Gains
The crypto market is notoriously volatile, and prices can change quickly and dramatically. Just because cryptocurrencies have seen gains recently doesn’t mean those gains will continue indefinitely. In addition, there is still considerable regulation and security concerns about cryptocurrencies that could hinder their long-term growth.
it is important to consider the psychological impact of the recent crypto winter. Many investors lost significant amounts of money during the market downturn, which can do those hesitant to re-enter the market. There is also a risk that the market may experience a “dead cat bounce”, where prices rise briefly before falling again. This can be eroded further investor confidence and make it more difficult for the market to recover.
While there are certainly signs that the crypto market is entering a new phase of growth, there are also potential pitfalls that could derail that growth. As always, investors should approach the crypto market with caution and do your research before making any investment decisions.
— The Author, Dr. Srinath Sridharan, is a policy researcher and business advisor. The views expressed are personal and this is not investment advice.
(Edited by: CH Unnikrishnan)
First published: May 2, 2023 11:59 IST