The history of Bitcoin’s price in recent months

Exactly one year ago, on November 10, 2021, the price of Bitcoin reached a new all-time high, over $69,000 for the first time in history.

Binancethe marketing team wanted to create one video which shows how Bitcoin’s price developed from October 1, 2021 to November 8, 2022.

The video shows at the bottom the classic graph with the price trend, while at the top it shows the comparison between daily highs and lows to get a sense of the volatility.

It shows how volatility stayed particularly high in the weeks leading up to the peak, then faded once it touched. It then remained relatively low until February, when it rose slightly.

Then it was also quite high in May, and especially in June, when the price fell to $17,500. It then remained largely contained until November, when it increased.

The result is that between yesterday and today the new annual low was reached, which also so far corresponds to the lowest post-bubble level of the current cycle, at around $15,500, or 77% below the all-time high.

Bitcoin’s price through history: previous cycles

Bitcoinits current cycle began in May 2020, with the third halving, and will end in spring 2024 with the fourth.

The first cycle, from January 2009 to November 2012, was too abnormal to be taken as a benchmark, but the next two can be used for comparisons.

In all three cases so far, a speculative bubble arose the following year halving.

After first halving, 2014

After the first halving in November 2012, a mega-speculative bubble was generated in 2013, causing price to shoot in the air from $13 to over $1,100. The following year, Bitcoin’s first post-bubble bear market began.

The price first fell as low as $360 in April 2014, and then as low as $330 in October. However, the decline continued until January 2015, when the post-bubble low was reached at $172.

During the first phase of the decline, the price gained -67%, followed by another -8% in the second phase that ended in October 2014. Then, starting in mid-December, there was a third sharp decline of 48% which brought the post-bubble to -85% from the previous all-time high.

Bear market after $20,000, 2018

After the second halving in July 2016, another huge speculative bubble was generated in 2017, thanks to a new all-time high of $20,000 being recorded in December.

If so, the first collapse stopped already in February 2018, when $6000 was touched, with a loss of 70% from the peaks. In other words, the percentage loss was similar to the first drop in 2014, although it was much faster.

The second phase of the decline in 2018 lasted until June, but only brought the price back to just under $6000.

When comparing the cumulative declines from the peaks of the first two phases of Bitcoin’s price decline in the previous two post-bubble bear markets, the result is always -70%.

Just like the previous cycle, a third downward phase was triggered at the end of 2018, with a further collapse of 46%. The post-bubble low was reached in December 2018 at $3,200. Again, the post-bubble low was 85% lower than the previous record high.

Bitcoin price history since last halving, 2022

After the third halving in May 2020, the third post-halving speculative bubble was triggered, albeit to a lesser extent. It already started in December 2020, and led to a new record in November 2021 of $69,000.

In 2022, this bubble also burst, with an initial phase of decline ending in January at $35,000. The loss from the peaks at that time was 49 percent, which was lower in percentage terms than both the losses of the first phase of the bear market in 2014 and 2018.

The second collapse in 2022 occurred between May and June, bringing the price down to $17,500, or -74% from previous peaks.

Therefore, the cumulative decline in the first two 2022 collapses was greater, percentage-wise, and faster than in 2014 and 2018.

The third drop is still in progress. Should it stop at $15,500, touched yesterday, it would have been -77% significantly less than the -85% of the last two cycles. However, the lowest peak of the first post-bubble bear market occurred in January 2015 and the second in December 2018. So there is still time to do the same.

The current situation

An important thing to say is that nothing this year seems to indicate that Bitcoin has any problems.

Currently, it is the crypto markets that have major problems, but not Bitcoin itself.

Bitfinex market analysts say, for example:

“As the digital token space fizzles amid a frenzied selling push, the unique premise of Bitcoin as a truly decentralized form of digital cash will become all the more apparent. While there will be much healing to do after the apparent implosion of FTX, a supposed pillar of the digital token industry, the reasons why Bitcoin came into being are as clear and resolute as ever.”

In 2018, the problem with the November crash was precisely an incredible increase in BTC selling pressure due to the so-called hashwar, while in 2014 it was almost only Bitcoin that dominated the crypto markets.

Thus, today’s situation is still very different from the past, and may even have different outcomes.

On the other hand, while the bear markets of 2014 and 2018 have several things in common, from 2022 it seems a little different, perhaps precisely due to the fact that Bitcoin does not have any kind of internal problems. The 2021 Bitcoin speculation bubble itself was vastly smaller than the last two, while the same cannot be said for some altcoins that clearly over-inflated last year.

In conclusion, perhaps it can be argued that during this 2022, Bitcoin has actually not suffered much, compared to the sufferings of previous bear markets, and that it may slowly come out stronger.