S&P 500, energy, gold and bitcoin futures overview from Mooranalytics.com for 2/17/23

S&P 500 (H)
On a higher time frame: On 1/18/22, the break below the 4629.25 line warned of decent pressure and negated the medium-term bullish trend we were in since 3/23/20. On 8/22/22 we exited a medium-term bearish reversal above, which has brought in 676.75 with pressure from the 4178.75 open. These are ON HOLD. I warned of possible exhaustion at 3531.25-04.75 which had the potential to trigger a bullish correction with a minimum target of 3793.00, and a higher time frame target of 4190.50 – we held this with a low of 3502.00 and have returned 706.50, and took out both targets. These are ON HOLD. On a lower time frame: The trade above 3851.75 warned of renewed strength – we have seen 356.75. We held 3964.15-54.00 exhaustion with 3963.25 low and collected 245.25. These are ON HOLD. We are in a bearish correction/trend towards the rise from 378850. Decent trade above 4110.72 (+41 per/hour from projection necessarily). If this is a correction, which I think is likely, there are areas of possible exhaustion at 4048.00-26.75, 3998.50-83.00, 3949.00-47.50 and 3878.50-57.25. I would also NOTE that we have entered into the ideal time frame for one of these to hold and if we do this could start a whole new medium time frame bull structure that could last for several months.

Gold (J)
On a higher time frame: I warned on 8/16/18 the break above $1,179.7-$1,183.7 warned of renewed strength. We have seen $905.5. The break above $1,347.0 projected this upwards of $80 minimum, $320 (+) maximum. We have achieved $744.2. These are ON HOLD. We held major exhaustion at $2,071.6-93.2 with a $2,089.2 high rolling over $46.7. We rolled over from $2,079.6 for $456.6. These are ON HOLD. On a lower time frame: The break above $1,641.2 (+1 tick per hour) has brought in $334 in strength. The solid trade above $1,679.5 (-1 tick per hour) puts this above a major formation — we’re projected above the $80 minimum. We have achieved $295.7 so far. The break above $1,769.4 has brought in $205.8 in strength. The break above $1,860.0 signaled renewed strength – we have seen $115.2. These are ON HOLD. The trading below $1,966.7 (+.6 of a tick per hour) has brought in $139.0 of the decent push warned about. The trade below $1,935.3 (+2 tics per/hour) projected this down another $45 (+) – we have reached $107.6 so far. The break below $1,886.2 (+1.4 ticks per/hour) signals decent pressure – we’ve seen $58.5 so far. I will be aware of possible exhaustion at $1,826.1, $1,816.9, $1,800.3-796.7 (a key area) and lower. We are currently holding the top of these with a low of $1,827.7. Decent trade above $1,842.7 (-5 per/hour from 06:00) will warn of decent short covering, but this is steep to lean against – but if we break above decent here and back below decent, I would lean against it like a card. Decent trade above $1,845.1 (-1.3 p/hr as of 06:00) just above should provide decent short coverage, and is an easier slope to lean against.

Bitcoin
On a higher time frame: The 11.10.21 transition put this in a bearish trend. I warned that sales would exceed $13,000 from the high of $69,355—we’ve seen $54,430 of this. The trade below $63,285 (+15 per/hour) has brought in $48,360 of the pressure warned of below. We have gone down $36,080 from the $51,005 industry. These are ON HOLD. On a lower time frame: The trade below $34,830 put this under a significant bearish formation projecting this below the $13,000 low, $35,000 (+) high. We have achieved $19,905. These are OFF HOLD. The retracement above $16,275-60 has brought in $9,070 in strength. The trade above $17,245 (+3 per/hour) signaled further higher trading – we have seen $7,745. These are ON HOLD. I warned that we were either A.) starting a new, lower time frame, bullish structure, or B.) in the latter part of the move up from the lows – I think the latter of the two. This has provided confirmation by holding the $25,019-279 exhaustion with a $25,345 high, falling back below $24,385, taking out the trendline below and rolling above $1,005 into a likely bearish correction. I warned if this holds and it starts a bearish correction, it should exceed $3,070 from the high – which would make the minimum target $22,275. Trade above $25,270-350 would be a sign of renewed strength.

Crude oil (WTI) (J)
We settled into a bull’s egg, but I would disregard this. Settlement below $79.92 will start this in a bear nest. On a macro basis: On 4/29/20 we posted a bullish reversal below—we’ve seen $115.13 from the open to $15.37 in (N). On 5/5/20 we posted a medium-term bullish reversal below. We have seen $107.05 from $23.45. We held exhaustion with a low of $34.04 and a rise of $96.46. The trade above $45.21 warned of renewed strength – we’ve seen $85.29 of this. The break above $47.92 has brought in $82.58 of the strength warned of above. The trade above $52.24 has brought in $78.26 of the strength warned of above. We took out a major trend line at $55.15, which signaled significant strength. We have seen $75.35. The break above $57.45-8.02 projected this above the $56 low, $89 (+) high. We achieved $72.48. The trade above $59.50 gave in $71.00 in strength. We have seen $61.02 from $69.48. The trade above $69.70 has brought in $60.80. The trade above $71.36 achieved $59.14. These are ON HOLD. In the shorter term: Trading below $119.15 brought in $49.07 in pressure. Trading below $115.90 projected this down $8.85 (+). We achieved $45.82. The trade below $104.48 projected this down $17.40 (+) maximum. We achieved $34.40. The trade below $99.24 brought in $29.16 in pressure. The trade below $97.18 projected this down $8.30 (+) maximum. We achieved $27.58. These are ON HOLD. The trade above $75.76 (-2 ticks per hour) projects this upwards of $3.20 (+). We achieved $5.28. I warned today has a good probability of seeing range expansion. This looks weak coming out of the gate. A sustained gap lower will signal renewed pressure.

Natural gas (G)
We settled in a bear bone. Settlement above 2514 will start this in a bull leg. On a higher time frame: The failure back below 8440 led to $6,099 pressure (in previous contracts). The trade below 8208 warned of decent pressure. We have achieved $5,867 so far. I warned that decent trading below 7188 would be a renewed sign of weakness – we hit $4,847. On 12/19 we exited a moderately bearish formation above. I would NOTE: The trade below 5136-4993 projects this downside low $2,270, $4,700 (+) high – the high could be seen within another 1.5 months time. We have traded $2,652 lower. On a short-term basis: The trade below 3016 (-2.5 ticks per/hour) has brought in 675 ticks of the announced pressure. Decent trade below 2398-93 will project this down 240 ticks (+); but if we break down here decent and back above decent look for decent short cover.

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