Quant Analyst PlanB Reveals Bitcoin Forecast, Says BTC Could Crush $1,000,000 Price Tag
Quantitative analyst PlanB charts the Bitcoin forecast for the next three years.
In a new video, the analyst updates BTC’s stock-to-flow ratio, which is commonly used to predict the future price of scarce commodities.
The ratio is essentially calculated by dividing the amount of BTC in circulation by the amount of Bitcoin mined per year.
PlanB has maintained two stock-to-flow models with slightly different variations, and says both models have remained intact.
He points to Bitcoin’s upcoming halving, which will reduce the amount of new supply entering the market in about a year, as the key catalyst that will trigger an explosive BTC bull run.
PlanB says both of his stock-to-flow models show that BTC’s next peak is likely to be in the $100,000 to $1,000,000 range.
“My guidance going forward for the next three years is that the 2024 halving is coming … and the halving is increasing scarcity [and] pumping the Bitcoin price, just as it did the last three halvings.
That’s the yellow square it’s about because that’s the 2025 series I gave.
And I said it will be higher than $100,000, which is the bottom of the bandwidth. But actually I guess it will be between $100,000 and $1 million. And the stock-to-flow model indicates $500,000.”
I know a lot of people don’t like the range estimates. They think it’s too broad and useless, the model isn’t valid, etc. But I much prefer the wide range, which is an indication of high volatility, to a point estimate that pretends to be accurate.”
In the short term, PlanB says the key figure he is now looking at is Bitcoin’s 200-week moving average.
BTC broke above the moving average last week, but has since crawled back below it.
Historically, long-term Bitcoin bull runs have been triggered after BTC crosses above the line.
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