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According to countdown statistics based on the average block generation time of around ten minutes, progress towards the next halving of the Bitcoin block reward has passed 60%. But while most halving countdown clocks use the ten-minute average, the countdown with the most current block intervals of around 7:65 minutes shows that the halving could happen in 2023.
More recently, at block height 757,214, mined on October 5, 2022, Bitcoin’s total hash rate reached an all-time high (ATH) of 321.15 exahash per second (EH/s). Lately, the block intervals have been faster than usual and well below the ten-minute average.
The rate at which the 2016 blocks are found between difficulty adjustments determines the difficulty level, and the current block intervals suggest that a large difficulty jump is in the cards. Now, before the next difficulty bump, the hashrate has continued to be strong and block times at the time of writing are around 7:65 minutes.
The next mining difficulty retarget is scheduled to occur around October 10, 2022. If block times remain faster than usual even after the retarget, the protocol’s block reward halving may very well occur in 2023. Statistics from bitcoinsensus.com indicate that at 7:65 minutes per block interval, the halving may take place on or around December 19, 2023.
Bitcoinsensus.com further shows the halving time based on the average ten-minute rule showing that the halving will occur on May 1, 2024. Most countdown calculators use the average ten-minute rule, and other data points suggest that the halving could occur on April 20, 2024.
Anyway, progress towards the next halving is still more than 60% complete and when that happens, bitcoin miner rewards will decrease from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC after halving. Despite the high speed now, miners can easily slow down after the meaningful difficulty increase on October 10 is registered and if BTC prices remain low.
This will in turn push the halving date back to the 2024 interval, and after all, there is still well over a year of BTC block subsidies to mine. A lot can change. According to a recent blog post by Blocksbridge Consulting, difficulty change and low price range can give bitcoin miners headaches from loss of profits.
“Bitcoin’s daily mining revenue per PH/s is currently around $80. If the difficulty rises 13% on Monday and bitcoin’s price remains at $19.5,000, the daily revenue will decrease to $70 per (petahash) PH/s,” notes Blocksbridge Consulting’s Miner Weekly issue 17. “It would leave mining companies mining at low revenues on a daily basis, even lower than what we saw in the summer after the May 2020 halving.”
The blog post adds:
Unless bitcoin’s price breaks the $20,000 barrier, those using older generation machines or with bloated mining operations will face an even tougher time ahead.
Viabtc’s Viawallet halving calculations show that eight blockchains are expected to see reward halvings or what are known as “reward reductions.” Dash expects a reward reduction on June 20, 2023, as rewards will shrink from 2.76 DASH to 2.56 DASH. Other reduction events and reward halvings will originate from blockchains that include BCH, BSV, LTC, ETC, ZEC and ZEN.
What do you think about the Bitcoin network’s progress towards the next halving exceeding 60%? Let us know what you think about this topic in the comments section below.
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