Potentially bullish move if BTC has this critical area

Bitcoin’s price is still consolidating in the $ 20K range after a massive crash of $ 30K in June. This zone is also in line with the previous ATH in 2017 and provides psychological support, which – in case it lasts – can lead to an emergency aid meeting in the short term.

Technical analysis

Technical and chain analysis of Edris

The daily chart

As mentioned above, if the price declines from the current consolidation range, the resistance level of $ 24K and the 50-day moving average will be the first major barriers before the supply zone of $ 30K.

On the other hand, if the price breaks below the $ 17-20K support range, a deeper crash against the $ 15K level will be imminent.

With the above in mind, a short-term bullish pullback is still the most likely scenario, as the price is massively oversold and at a significant support level.

4-hour chart

As you can see in the 4-hour timeframe chart below, the price has fluctuated within a triangular pattern in recent weeks.

The triangular pattern can be either a continuation or a reversal pattern, depending on whether the price breaks to the top or the bottom. BTC is currently testing the upper limit of the triangle after finding support at the lower limit a few days ago.

In the event of a bullish breakout, a reversal scenario, or at least a short-term bullish pullback against the $ 24K and finally the $ 30K levels, can be expected. The RSI indicator is also trending above the 50 mark, which indicates the bulls’ relative dominance over the market in recent days.

Analysis on the chain

Bitcoin Whale MVRV

In the past, the bottom of a market cycle has usually formed as the price varied in “extreme fear.” The majority of market participants are under water in this phase, and the weaker hands tend to realize massive losses all the time. In comparison, some of the stronger hands continue to HODL through the pain.

The second group consisted mainly of whales, who are investors with large capital who are financially stable and could withstand more risk than other smaller participants. Whales are usually the last group to enter the losing territory, and this period will mark the last phase of the bear market.

One of the most valuable indicators for evaluating unrealized gains / losses in the market is the MVRV ratio. MVRV is a ratio between market value and realized value of a set of coins.

As demonstrated by the following Whale MVRV chart, previous bear market bottoms have coincided with Whale MVRV values ​​below 1, indicating that most whales have a loss. It is clear that this calculation has recently fallen below 1 again, signaling the beginning of the last capitulation phase and probably the bottom of the cycle over the next few weeks or months.