Pierre Poilievre Brings Bitcoin to Canada – Bitcoin Magazine
This is an opinion editorial by Jesse Willms, a Canadian Bitcoin reporter.
In a stunning victory, Pierre Poilievre received 68% of the first vote to become leader of Canada’s Conservative Party, becoming the first outspoken Bitcoiner to do so.
“The victory not only exceeded the wildest expectations of the Poilievre campaign, but—with the notable exception of the 2013 leadership race that elected Justin Trudeau as Liberal leader—it ranks as one of the most major-party leadership victories in Canadian history.”, noted the National Post.
It was only a day after he was elected leader of Canada’s Conservative Party that Poilievre received his first attack from Canada’s current Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau. Trudeau likely refers to Poilievre’s support for Bitcoin as “irresponsible”. tweeted:
“We have done our utmost to work with all parliamentarians over the years and we will continue to do so. But we will also call out questionable, reckless economic ideas – because Canadians deserve responsible leadership. Telling people they can opt out of inflation by investing in cryptocurrencies is not responsible management.”
What happens now?
While it is clear that there is a no-holds-barred, knock-down, drag-em-out fight coming between Poilievre and Trudeau, the exact timing is unclear.
Prime Minister Trudeau is undoubtedly getting a lot of advice about when to go to the polls. If he chooses sooner rather than later — to exercise his power to call a federal election before the Oct. 4, 2025, deadline under the Canada Elections Act — the stream of scandals that have followed him could come to a quicker end. And if the vote comes sooner rather than later, Trudeau could avoid having to face a judicial inquiry into his use of emergency law to control what turned out to be a peaceful protest.
It is generally considered better for incumbents to call elections when the economy is improving and inflation is falling, but these trends can be difficult to predict. In any case Liberals have an agreement with the socialist NDP for support in any no-confidence motions until spring 2025, if they need to use it.
Trudeau may decide to wait to call an election, as he may believe there is a possibility that Canadians may tire of Poilievre and his MPs.
Regardless of when the vote is taken, in my opinion the winner will likely be Poilievre.
Why Poilievre will win, sooner or later
- A winning strategy: Driven by principles, not polling data
“Canadian federal politics isn’t always a race for the center, but it usually is,” noted the national newspaper The Globe And Mail. “MR. Poilievre got to be leader by brazenly aiming for something other than a moderate midfield. Unlike his predecessor Erin O’Toole, he has given every indication that is where he plans to stay.”
Conventional wisdom suggests that the majority of Canadians are middle-of-the-road moderate voters, and so it only makes sense for political parties to aim for the middle. All parties reason that squeezing the political center as much as possible, thereby matching opinion poll data, is the strategically smart thing to do.
With his resounding victory, Poilievre has ignored the polling data and simply gone for a program, which includes bitcoin adoption, which he believes in, and which gives voters something to strive for.
- The courage to promote Bitcoin is seen as leadership
Poilievre campaigned on freedom from government, but also on free money – that people should be free to invest in and use bitcoin has been his position.
The timing of the six-month campaign – from March to September – coincided with a fall in the price of bitcoin that opponents have used to paint Poilievre as irresponsible (in a televised debate, a leadership rival accused him of defrauding vulnerable seniors who stood to losing money on his advice).
Against the advice of party members, Poilievre, to his credit, never backed down, despite taking a beating from conservatives who believed they could easily win without complicating things with bitcoin, especially in the current bear market. (Even the most dedicated bitcoiner might say, “well, maybe this isn’t the time or place.”)
He has refused to equivocate, and this may have earned him the respect of potential voters who think they may not agree with him, but at least he’s holding firm.
- Support of young people
The conservative party organizers were more than surprised by the thousands of young people who took out memberships and voted for Poilievre.
Canadian politics, as in many countries, is usually for retirees with a lot of time on their hands, and is the last place you’d expect to find crowds of young people.
A source close to the Poilievre campaign remains surprised to see that Poilievre’s social media engagement translated into real-life interactions — especially with a younger age group.
Polls in recent months have shown that younger voters have increasingly abandoned the Liberals for the Conservatives for the first time, even before Poilievre became leader of the Conservative Party.
“I think we’re just scratching the surface … of how his ability to access young people ultimately contributed to his victory,” Michael Solberg, a partner at Canadian PR firm New West Public Affairs, told the National Post. “His digital media game is stronger than even that of the Prime Minister and the Government of Canada, with all their resources and money.”
- Accident of birth and culture
Canadian federal politics is complicated by the fact that many votes come from francophones living in Quebec, meaning that it is not impossible, but unlikely, for a monolingual candidate to win in that province.
Although he grew up in Alberta, Poilievre, with a francophone name, is fluent in French, almost a requirement to win a nationwide vote in Canada.
Despite not being from Quebec, Poilievre won the majority of votes in Quebec and stands to win big in any future election.
- Hostility towards the Left is growing
It is difficult to envisage a scenario in which the Liberal Party can regain its previous lead in the opinion polls. Even without the acrimony over the truck convoy and questions about the use of the emergency law, the upcoming campaign will be Trudeau’s fourth in a row.
“The next campaign will almost certainly be Trudeau’s last. History suggests that it will be an uphill battle. Sir Wilfrid Laurier was the last sitting Prime Minister to secure a fourth consecutive term” (in 1917), said one observer.
- Socialist NDP loses support
The NDP is generally seen as the party of the working class, but fundraising suggests a shift in support among some working Canadians.
According to some observers, by striking a deal with Trudeau to keep the government in power until 2025, the NDP leader has sealed his own and likely the party’s fate in any upcoming vote.
- The East/West divide reduces electoral support, is evenly distributed
Alienation from Central Canada has grown in Canada’s western provinces, particularly in Alberta, which has its own political party advocating independence from Canada.
Because of Poilievre’s support for the truckers and the perception that the Trudeau Liberals are an Eastern Canadian party, there was likely more than usual interest from Western Canada in the recent campaign.
Western voters showed an almost unprecedented interest in the recent vote, and that is likely to continue into the next federal election.
Conclusion
In politics, as in life, the obvious strategy is not necessarily the winning one.
By taking the high road instead of the middle of the road and running for what he believes in, Poilievre upends the normalcy of Canadian politics.
How will this affect the outcome of the upcoming federal election?
In my opinion, it would be safe to bet your bitcoin on Poilievre.
This is a guest post by Jesse Willms. Opinions expressed are entirely their own and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.
