Latest Bitcoin price data suggests double top above $200K in 2025
Bitcoin (BTC) remains on track to hit $180,000 in its next halving cycle, a long-time market participant said.
In a new analysis published on March 3, Filbfilb, co-founder of trading suite DecenTrader, doubled down on his bullish BTC price outlook for the years ahead.
Filbfilb retains faith in Bitcoin’s halving cycles
With BTC/USD nearing $30,000 but traders highly suspicious of the 2023 rally, soaring BTC price predictions have been poorly received.
Two current $1 million forecasts, from ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood and former Coinbase CEO Balaji Srinivasan, respectively, continue to divide opinion in the wake of the 2022 crypto winter.
Considering whether any of them have merit, Filbfilb turned to raw math to find some likely macro tops and bottoms for Bitcoin after the next block subsidy halving.
Expiring at the end of March next year, the halving will again cut the block reward to miners by 50%. In previous four-year cycles following previous halvings, BTC/USD has shown patterns of behavior that continue to apply today.
“When you use Days from the Bitcoin Halving (where the inflation rate of new Bitcoins is halved); we can see that Bitcoin peaks around 368-550 days post-halving and then bottoms 779-914 days post-cycle,” Filbfilb summarized.
Related: Crypto winter can take a toll on hodlers’ mental health
His analysis generates a so-called “price curve”, showing that it may be possible to get a rough idea of where BTC/USD will top and bottom in the upcoming halving cycles.
“By combining expected halving dates and days to cycle cycle tops and bottoms along with extrapolated regression of price data, it is possible to use this model to predict where the Bitcoin price may be at the tops and bottoms of future cycles,” he continued.
BTC price at $200,000 or more?
Therefore, in line with 2013, 2017 and 2021, 2025 should see a “double top” setup, with Bitcoin topping above $200,000 twice.
Related: Bitcoin Will Reach $200K Before $70K “Bear Market” Next Cycle — Forecast
The corresponding lowest bear market a year later is around $50,000, according to the calculations.
Although Filbfilb acknowledges that price volatility and relative blow-out trajectory will decrease over time, Filbfilb reasons that general global trends towards digital stores of value will help Bitcoin bulls.
Nevertheless, for his part, he believes that the next cycle will bring a slightly lower height than the numbers suggest – around $180,000, already in play since February.
“I have recently stated that $180k is the target next cycle; I will stick to it for now, he concludes.
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