Is Bitcoin its [BTC] low recent volatility “calm” before a “stormy” uptrend

Bitcoin [BTC] investors paying close attention to results over the past few days may have seen lower volatility towards the end of September. This may have only been a likely outcome due to uncertainty about how it will perform in October. This performance may actually be akin to the calm before the storm, in which case Bitcoin may be headed for a big move.

One of the key observations underpinning Bitcoin’s lower volatility includes the drop in currency flows. Both currency inflows and outflows fell significantly over the past 2 weeks, with the same now near its lowest level in four weeks.

Source: Glassnode

Bitcoin’s next move may already be underway, despite the observed drop in volatility. Currency inflows and outflows ended September with some deviation. Currency flows increased somewhat between 29 and 30 September, while output continued to fall. This confirms a noticeable change in the amount flowing out of exchanges.

Bitcoin’s exchange balance dropped significantly during the same 2-day period. However, the currency balance recorded only around 42,902 BTC moving out of the exchanges.

Source: Glassnode

The said amount in BTC was worth approximately $825.6 million at press time price levels. This seems consistent with the observed weighted sentiment shift in favor of the bulls after September 25.

Such observations may indicate that volumes are currently leaning towards the bullish side.

Whales on the move?

BTC’s supply distribution metrics also revealed a large increase in the balance of addresses with between 100,000 and 1 million BTC. This episode happened towards the end of the month.

Source: Sentiment

Although some whales rallied during this period, some other categories of whales contributed to selling pressure. This included whales holding between 100 and 1000 BTC as well as those in the 10,000 to 100,000 BTC categories.

Most of the whales reduced their activity, especially on the last day of the month. Some of the largest addresses reduced their balances slightly during this period. This outcome has contributed to the slight downside over the past 3 days, but it could be a form of market manipulation.

Therefore, investors should watch out for a possible bear trap going forward.

Source: TradingView

Bitcoin concluded September with higher relative strength on the RSI and a MACD flip above the zero line. These observations side with the bulls. However, these types of price zones are also ideal for whale manipulation.

A drop from press time levels would lead to more R&D in the market. A possible outcome will be higher leveraged short positions due to more downside expectations. Whales will then benefit from lower price levels.

Simply put, investors should take into account that BTC’s press-time level represents a relatively significant discount so far this year.