How Will Upcoming Halving Affect BTC Performance?

Cryptocurrency market experts are trying to predict where Bitcoin (BTC) will go in the coming months and years, especially as the leading digital asset has climbed back above the $20,000 psychological threshold since early 2023.

The next halving event for the flagship digital currency is scheduled for 2024 and is one of the events that could dramatically “push” the price of Bitcoin, according to many experts and advocates, which could have a significant impact.

Bitcoin’s fourth halving event, or the fourth protocol-designed 50% reduction in block rewards occurs every 210,000 blocks or about every four years. According to estimation, the next halving event will take place around May 4, 2024, when Bitcoin reaches 840,000 blocks.

Why investors are bullish on the next Bitcoin halving

After the third halving event on May 11, 2020, miners have been paid 6.25 Bitcoins for each Bitcoin block mined. With an average of 144 blocks generated every 24 hours, this equates to approximately 900 Bitcoins being issued and rewarded every day.

By the design of the Bitcoin blockchain, this reward will be “halved” and reduced to 3,125 BTC per block at the fourth halving event. If the average number of blocks mined each day remains approximately the same, approximately 450 BTC will be created each day.

When trying to predict how Bitcoin’s price will move in the future, history can be a valuable tool in determining the future direction of prices, which is especially true when you consider the fact that Bitcoin’s value has increased by nearly 1,000 times since the first halving.

In this line, Finbold analyzed industry experts on their Bitcoin outlook and fundamental factors that are likely to define the asset’s performance in view of 2025 and beyond.

21 million BTC

With extraction of block ‘730002’ of SBI Crypto April 2022, it became apparent that only 2 million BTC (out of a total of 21 million) remained to be issued. In turn, price increases can occur as a natural result of reduced supply and increased demand.

At the same time, positive developments are expected, such as payment giant VISA (NYSE: V) partnering with leading crypto payment platform Wirex to launch crypto-enabled debit and prepaid cards for Bitcoin and other cryptos in more than 40 countries. positive impact on digital asset prices in the future.

Bitcoin halving to pump BTC price

Well-known pseudonymous crypto trading expert Plan B announced back in October that “the next Bitcoin halving is coming, and IMO it will (again) pump BTC,” while posting his chart analysis of the decentralized finance (DeFi) asset’s past price movements and future predictions.

The chart follows a stock-to-flow (S2F) live model, which uses the concept of scarcity to measure Bitcoin’s value and speculate on its potential future price. Following Bitcoin’s third halving event in May 2020, the chart model advocated by PlanB has received significant attention from many sources.

Plan B’s the forecast is in line with that of cryptocurrency trader and analyst Josh Rager, who has predicted a massive Bitcoin rally after the halving in 2024. Rager has said that “the real party won’t start until 2024.”

The analyst was referring to his August 25 tweet in which he predicted Bitcoin’s growth trajectory after the halving events will be replicated in the 2024 rally.

Why do these predictions matter?

After a halving, prices tend to rise steadily and significantly over the following years, reaching a peak about a year and a half later. In the event that the same happens with the subsequent one, this would be good news for Bitcoin investors.

Interestingly, the above analysis goes hand in hand with the predictions of Bloomberg senior commodities expert Mike McGlone, who previously said in late January that Bitcoin could reach $100,000 sometime around the next halving or by 2025.

McGlone maintains his well-known long-term bullish stance, and has previously stated that Bitcoin could surpass gold as its top competitor in the future. According to him:

“I fully expect Bitcoin in the next couple of years, probably around the halving, maybe 2025, to get to $100,000.”

BTC Price Analysis

At press time, Bitcoin was trading at $22,117 as it appears to hold support above the $22,000 price level of February 15. The total market capitalization is $420.8 billion, with a trading volume of $20.7 billion in the last 24 hours.

Bitcoin Technical Analysis on TradingView is primarily bearish, with the summary in line with ‘sell’ sentiment at nine while the moving average is for ‘strong sell’ at 8. Oscillators point to ‘neutral’ at 8.

Despite the price drop in February, it is worth noting that one of Bitcoin’s key technical indicators, the Rainbow relative strength index (RSI), had turned green for the first time on February 12th after an extended correction, suggesting long-term bullish momentum.

Estimated price 2025

Especially Robert Kiyosaki, author of the best-selling personal finance book ‘Rich Dad Poor Dad,’ Kiyosaki labeled Bitcoin as one of the three “hottest topics on Earth” along with silver and gold, predicting BTC to reach $500,000 by 2025.

Meanwhile, in an exclusive industry report by Finbold where experts weighed in on what to expect for Bitcoin in 2023, Stefan Ristic, a crypto miner who runs BitcoinMiningSoftware.comexpect the 2024 Bitcoin halving to act as a major catalyst for a possible bull run in late 2024 to 2025.

Price forecast 2030

According to the average prediction given by Finder’s panel of fintech specialists in their January 2023 report, they predict that BTC will reach $77,492 by 2025 and $188,451 by 2030.

It is those in the cryptocurrency industry who are optimistic about the valuation of Bitcoin in 2030. The Winklevoss twins, who founded the Gemini cryptocurrency exchange, predict that Bitcoin’s value will reach $500,000 by 2030. According to the brothers, the flagship cryptocurrency will replace gold as a store of value.

According to NDAX CEO Bilal Hammoud, Bitcoin’s price will reach $500,000 by 2030. He believes that the target can be set higher, but he predicts that increasing interest rate increases will affect the trajectory.

Finally, Finbold asked ChatGPT to share Bitcoin’s possible price by 2030 based on various metrics, such as traditional price movement and technical analysis, among others.

In light of the significant market volatility and regulatory uncertainty, the tool admits that it is difficult to predict the price of Bitcoin in the long term. However, the AI-based platform argues that Bitcoin still has the capacity to grow in the years ahead due to developing markets and widespread acceptance of the cryptocurrency.

“As the cryptocurrency market matures and more people become aware of the potential of digital currencies, Bitcoin is likely to become more widely accepted and its value will continue to rise,” ChatGPT said.

Conclusion

The value of Bitcoin is still expected to rise, as shown by the price estimates given by the aforementioned experts and observers, giving investors a reason to retain confidence in the cryptocurrency.

Bitcoin has remained one of the most popular choices for long-term investments in the cryptocurrency market, although its price is subject to significant fluctuations due to its high degree of volatility.

Considering that no one can predict with absolute certainty where Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies will end up by the end of this year, it is even more difficult to make predictions about the next seven years.

Disclaimer: The content of this page should not be considered investment advice. Investment is speculative. When you invest, your capital is at risk.