How many times was famous analyst Crypto Capo wrong about Bitcoin?
The renowned analyst who correctly predicted the Bitcoin collapse in 2022 has been accused of inaccurate predictions and pumping low-cap altcoins.
Traders, whales and HODLers may steer the crypto market trajectory, but analysts more often than not steer the market sentiment and act as a guiding light for many in the space.
The pseudonymous cryptoanalyst Il Capo of Crypto has a tight-knit following on Twitter with around 541.9k followers.
The cryptoanalyst was recently accused of “engaging in cherry-picking” by another cryptocurrency and financial researcher who goes by the name FatManTerra on Twitter.
Analysis or cherry picking?
In a detailed tweet, FatMan presented a chart of Bitcoin’s price along with Crypto Capo’s Tweets after BTC all-time high. An interesting comparison shows how Capo’s bottom analysis was followed by higher losses. Notably, most of Crypto Capo’s prediction surrounding the BTC price was actually negated by the real price action.
On November 29, after BTC’s all-time high, Capo informed his followers that “HODL is the way.”
On the contrary, after November 29, BTC saw a bullish push of over 10% in the lower time frame while the coin’s long-term trajectory tipped bearish, pulling its price down by over 20% in just one week.
Once again, in early January, Capo predicted that the BTC bottom was near. At the time, Bitcoin’s price was hovering near the $43,000 mark. From the day of the tweet to February 1, BTC’s price recorded a 17% drop, falling to a low of $32,000 in the following days.
On January 13, Capo once again celebrated a BTC bottom at the $43,000 mark as the BTC price actually saw a retest of the lower $32,000 over the next 10 days. Additionally, around the same time, the BTC RSI trended lower, presenting high sell-side pressure.
Around December, when Bitcoin’s price was at $48,000, Capo’s predictions of a rise to $55,000 were also invalidated when BTC faced a strong rejection at $50,500.
On January 18, Capo called the $40,000 bottom, but the same did not pan out and the price fell to the $32,000 level during the following week, again invalidating the analyst’s bottom prediction.
On the contrary, when the analyst placed bearish bets on BTC’s price on January 22nd, the Bitcoin price rose 25% the following week following Capos’ predictions of a week under $30K.”
Finally, once again on January 23, Capo presented how he was more invested in USDT due to the volatile BTC price, but in reality, the Bitcoin price saw a mid-term boost before falling.
Capo shot in the dark
Interestingly, in March 2022 when BTC hovered around the $40,000 mark, the analyst accurately predicted that the Bitcoin price would collapse by up to 50%.
However, the same was not true for his March 2021 prediction when he expected BTC to trade between $200,000 and $500,000 before March 2022.
Fast forward to this March, BTC actually formed a bearish flag after experiencing a 50% correction between November 2021 and January 2022. The bearish formation was confirmed in late April 2022, leading to a 56% downtrend that led until Bitcoin reached $17,600 in mid-June.
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