Here’s the worst-case scenario for Bitcoin (BTC) in 10 years, according to macro guru Raoul Pal
Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal says Bitcoin (BTC) could still break out on its way to outperforming other asset classes over the next 10 years, even in his worst-case scenario.
In a recent roundtable discussion on the Scott Melker YouTube channel, the former Goldman Sachs executive explains how the more extreme an asset’s inherent volatility (VOL), the higher it can potentially multiply in price compared to less risky investments.
“Volatility brings reward. Because it’s a 70-volume asset, it gives these 20x, 50, 100x [rewards] depending on what time period you are looking at.
People are simply not set up for it because they are mean reversionists. They believe that the world is cyclical and everything goes back to where it was, so therefore every boom has a bust, and every bust brings it back to where it started.
But that is not what is happening here. It’s in an exponential trend, so each bust is significantly higher. I mean Bitcoin $4000, Bitcoin $20,000. It’s low to low, it’s extraordinary. But people don’t see it. They are not used to it. They don’t know how to deal with it. People have to learn. We all did.”
Pal goes on to recount his observations of being an early Bitcoin investor when the asset was still valued well below $1,000, noting that he believes BTC will eventually be worth $100,000 at a minimum and could even go that high like a million dollars.
“I’ve never understood how in an exponential trend it’s better to buy and hold and add to the big sales. I went back and looked at all the times I traded Bitcoin from 2013 when I first entered $200.
I ran it up $1000 so it went up 5 times in two months and then went all the way down 85% again. I only kept it because I wanted to treat it as an option. I had a 10-year view.
I said it would probably cost $100,000 at worst, $1 million at best over the next 10 to 20 years.”
Pal concludes by mentioning his other crypto investments, including leading smart contract Ethereum (ETH) and competing layer-1 protocol Solana (SOL).
“I have some different tokens. My main bets are Ethereum and Solana, but I have no idea if Solana is going to be anything or not. I think it’s probably because network adoption seems to be as high as anything else, but the world can change quickly.
Other than that, I have a basket of equally weighted things because I guess I’m an idiot and don’t know how to choose the right things. That’s why I created a fund of hedge funds, because I’d rather give my money to a bunch of people whose job it is to go and find what’s the next 100x or 1000x than try to do it myself because it’s complicated.. .
Just a little basket of things, just keep an eye on it all, see what moves, see how it works.”
At the time of writing, Bitcoin has stabilized from the correction that began on August 18, currently down less than one percent and trading at $21,330.
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