Here’s the worst-case scenario for Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), according to analyst Benjamin Cowen
A widely followed cryptoanalyst outlines what he believes could be the worst-case scenarios for the two leading digital assets.
In a new interview on the Altcoin Daily YouTube channel, crypto strategist Benjamin Cowen says macroeconomic headwinds could drive Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) into new bear markets.
Looking first at Ethereum, Cowen predicts that ETH could lose as much as 65% of its value from its current price of $1,175.
“The worst case scenario will depend on how bad this potential recession ends up being. It’s hard to know exactly how it’s going to affect crypto, but I would say for Ethereum, the main levels I’m looking at are the $400-$600 range .
I don’t know if it’s going to go all the way down to $400, but I think a $600 ETH is potentially in the cards mainly because I think there’s a lot of evidence to suggest that it’s about a cycle behind Bitcoin in terms of volatility.
[ETH’s] first cycle [was] a solid 95% bear market and Bitcoin’s first bear market was 94%. Bitcoin’s second bear market was around 87%, so if Ethereum goes down 87% from the all-time high this time, or even 88%, that would put it just below $600, so I think there’s a case to be made that Ethereum may have this latest capitulation down into the $400-$600 range.”
The popular analyst goes on to present what he believes could be the worst-case scenario for the top crypto asset by market capitalization, adding that he doesn’t think it will be hit as hard as altcoins.
“I do not think [Bitcoin] must drop almost as much as some of these altcoins to actually [find] its bottom… The main indicators that I still see that it [still] must be triggered are things that Bitcoin normally has a daily close below the balanced price.
Right now, the balanced price is right at $15,000, so that would tend to make me think we’re going to have to go below $15,000 at some point.”
Bitcoin’s balanced price is a model that attempts to capture the true value of the royal crypt by measuring the difference between BTC’s realized price and transferred price.
BTC is changing hands at $16,154 at time of writing, down 2.54% in the last 24 hours.
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