Here Is The First Support If Bitcoin Fails To Break Above $24K (BTC Price Analysis)

Bitcoin continues its bid to break above the $24,000 resistance level, despite being steadily rejected by it in recent weeks. Will the bulls finally be able to break it, or will the bears gain the upper hand?

Technical analysis

Of: Edris

The daily chart

The price is technically in an uptrend as it has formed higher highs and lows, but the $24K level is proving to be a very strong obstacle. The 100-day moving average has also reached the same zone. It has provided additional resistance and therefore the price has not yet closed above it.

A breakout above the $24K level could lead to a massive rally towards the $30K supply zone. This would be the next great resistance. On the other hand, the 50-day moving average – currently sitting at the $22K level – could support the price if a bearish pullback occurs.

The 4-hour chart

On the 4-hour time frame, everything remains the same as last week. The price has yet to cross the major bearish flag and has been rejected again after a fourth touch of the higher boundary of the pattern. At the moment, the cryptocurrency seems to be headed towards the bullish trend line shown on the chart.

The RSI indicator has signaled a massive bearish divergence between the recent 4-hour highs. A bearish breakout below the aforementioned trend line would be the most expected scenario. In this case, a retest of the lower limit of the flag and the $20K support area would be in the cards.

If the price eventually breaks the flag to the downside, a bearish continuation would be expected. As a result, BTC may fall below the recent $18K level and continue towards the $15K level.

Analysis of the chain

Of: Edris

Bitcoin long term holds SOPR

Bitcoin’s bear market in previous months has led to massive realized losses by all participants. Even the long-term owners, who usually use their coins in profit, are currently realizing losses. This behavior often occurs in the final phase of a bear market, a period when long-term owners begin panic selling. This is known as “capitulation”.

These holders usually have large amounts of Bitcoin as they accumulated their coins at cheaper prices and have held them for long periods of time. They would inject a significant supply into the market, which would usually trigger the final crash of the bear cycle. And finally, when smart money decides to collect these cheap coins, the bottom starts to form.

The long-term holders’ SOPR measure shows the number of profits or losses realized by this particular group. This calculation has been below 1 since the end of May 2022, indicating that the long-term owners are constantly realizing losses. However, it seems to be recovering and starting an upward trend lately.

Historically, this metric crossing above 1 has signaled the beginning of a new bull market. Despite that, it is still too early to declare the end of the bear market – this recent rally may just be another bull trap in the middle of a downtrend – as we saw in the previous bear market. The long-term holders’ SOPR measurement should be closely monitored in the short term to determine which case will be more likely.