Has Bitcoin Bottomed? – The Kryptonome

The decline in Bitcoin’s price began around mid-November last year. After passing $69,000 on November 10, 2021, it collapsed over the next few months to $17,500 on June 18, 2022.

Bitcoin: correction or further decline?

Therefore, it has been more than a month since the price dropped below the $18,000 mark, in fact lateralization around $20,000.

Something similar had already happened between the end of January and the beginning of May, with price no longer falling below the January low on the 24th of the month at $37,500, but there was a difference.

In fact, from March to April it had risen as high as $48,000 before falling back below $38,000. In the last month, however, it never managed to rise above $23,000 again until July 19th.

Analyzing the chart, therefore, it appears that the bottom of this phase was touched on June 18, and since then a month-long lateralization phase has been triggered where it has hovered around $20,000. As of Tuesday, it appears that this phase has also ended, with the threshold around which the price hovers at $22,000.

Nevertheless, it is by no means certain that the $17,500 touched on June 18 is also lowest point that will be reached in 2022.

What is certain is that the decline that began on May 5, when UST and Luna began to show the first problems, is over. In fact, during 2022 there have been two periods in which the price has collapsed, and two in which it has lateralized. This does not rule out in advance that after the current phase of lateralization there cannot be another with further collapse.

While the first collapse phase, which ended at the end of January, was the natural consequence of the deflation of the speculative bubble formed at the end of 2021, the second collapse was caused by the implosion of the Terra ecosystem and its inevitable consequences.

Possible development in the price of BTC

In light of these considerations, it is possible to imagine that it would require another similar event trigger a new phase of collapse.

Indeed, there is one detail that makes one imagine that the collapse may actually have disappeared for now. Last year there were three rough updates for crypto markets between May, June and July. This year, however, there were only two, as there was no significant decrease in July. On the contrary, starting on July 13, a small upward phase was triggered, which really seems to indicate a change in the trend.

There is also another detail that suggests another collapse could also be triggered, perhaps in the coming months. In both previous cases during the post-halving bear market the price of Bitcoin dropped as much as 85% from previous highs, while the peak loss during this third post-halving bear market was “only” 74%. Thus, it is possible to imagine that the price could still fall below $11,000, or below the $13,000 some analysts still claim.

So while it seems clear that the bottom of this phase has passed, it is unclear which direction Bitcoin’s price will go during the next phase, which may have begun as early as July 13.

It is worth noting that the speculative bubble after 2020 halving was significantly lower than in 2013 and 2017, so it may also make sense that the following collapse may be lower than the previous two.