Ethereum is ahead of Bitcoin this rally – but ETH price still risks 20% crash against BTC

Ethereum’s native token, Ether (ETH), recorded better gains than Bitcoin (BTC) over the past 24 hours despite the latter eventually rising above the key $20,000 level.

Ether beats Bitcoin in risk-on rally

On the daily chart, Ether jumped about 14% to reach its weekly high of $1,554 (data from Binance) on October 26. Bitcoin underwent a similar rally, but its week-to-date gain is only 6% by comparison.

The ETH/BTC pair gained around 8%, climbing as high as 0.075 BTC on October 26.

ETH/BTC Daily Price Chart. Source: TradingView

The boom in the top crypto assets has been in sync with the US stock market’s winning streak since October 24. It also came on the back of a weaker US dollar index, which has typically traded inversely to the crypto market since March 2020.

Bear fractal alarm

ETH/BTC’s recent price rally has taken it to a range that preceded a 35% correction in the April-May 2022 session (marked as “R1” in the chart below) and was instrumental in limiting the upside outlook in August-September 2022 (marked as “R3” in the diagram below).

ETH/BTC 3-day price chart. Source: TradingView

The range coincides with the range defined by ETH/BTC’s 0.236-0.382 Fib lines, or 0.072 BTC-0.077 BTC. Therefore, the pair may stabilize within the range, followed by a correction towards the 0.068 BTC–0.064 BTC range, its close support levels.

Related: Ethereum’s Merger Won’t Stop Price From Falling

Meanwhile, a decisive break below the 0.068 BTC-0.064 BTC range could expose Ether to fall towards its multi-month rising trendline, which served as a solid bounce back after the April-May 2022 downtrend.

That puts ETH/BTC’s primary downside target at around 0.059 BTC in Q4 2022, down 20% from current price levels.

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