ETH price set for more gains compared to Bitcoin in April
Ethereum’s Ether (ETH) token fell over 7.5% in the Bitcoin (BTC) pair in 2023. But ETH/BTC could wipe out its year-to-date (YTD) losses entirely in April, when Ethereum’s long-awaited Shanghai hard fork only days away.
Set for April 12th, the upgrade will allow Ethereum players to cash out around 1.1 billion ETH in rewards – worth over $2 billion as of April 8th.
The ETH price is undergoing an important technical setback
Many experts see the hard fork as bullish for Ether in the long term. For example, the Shanghai buzz has helped Ether outperform Bitcoin in April so far.
As a result, the ETH/BTC pair is up about 4.75% month-to-date to reach 0.066 BTC as of April 8th, a decline of almost 8% since March 20th.
The bounce was largely expected, especially as ETH/BTC fell to its historic rising trendline support. Now, the upside move raises the prospect of an extended bullish retracement against its descending trendline resistance, marked as a “sell zone” in the chart below.
The fractal-based outlook puts Ether on target for 0.075 BTC by June, up 10% compared to today’s price level. Meanwhile, the pair’s upside target for April appears to be its 50-3D exponential moving average (50-3D EMA; the red wave) near 0.069 BTC.
Conversely, a decisive close below the 200-3D EMA (the blue wave) near 0.066 BTC, coinciding support/resistance level near 0.067 BTC, risks delaying or – at worst – invalidating the bullish retracement setup.
This bearish argument echoes independent market analyst CrediBULL Crypto who expects strong selling pressure near the 0.067 BTC resistance level that will lead to a 50% drop in 2023.
Ethereum vs. dollar outlook
The ETH/USD pair is up more than 50% in 2023, primarily due to similar performances elsewhere in the crypto market.
A weakening dollar, lower yields on US Treasuries and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike have helped cryptocurrencies rise across the board in the 1st quarter. These catalysts are likely to remain in focus until the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in May.
As a result, Ether may maintain its annual gains in April, consolidating within the $1,800-2,000 range until the Fed decision.
Related: 3 Key Ethereum Price Metrics Cast Doubt on the Strength of ETH’s Recent Rally
Also, a decisive breakout at current levels could result in extended gains with a Q2 ETH price target above $3,000.
On the other hand, the bears will try to pull the price down for a close below $1,800 with the triangle’s lower trendline near $1,600 as the downside target.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
