Economist Alex Krüger says crypto markets may enter ‘ballistic’ phase as macro climate shifts
Widely followed economist and cryptoanalyst Alex Krüger says he feels the bottom is likely in, and that a fleeting move to the upside could take shape.
In a new live broadcast with Scott Melker, Krüger says he expects the crypto markets to enter a bullish phase.
Krüger says that barring a Black Swan event, he doesn’t think the S&P 500 will collapse to $3,000.
Instead, he says stocks are likely to trade within a range, giving Bitcoin (BTC) and crypto markets the chance to de-correlate from the traditional markets and move to the upside.
“For me, [predicting a black swan event is] enter crystal ball territory. I can’t make the forecast. So it’s basically based on that, my ignorance. In terms of what’s going to happen in that regard, I think it’s most likely that stocks will stay limited, limited by interest rates.
On a historical basis, comparing stocks with interest rates and real interest rates, they are actually quite high. There is definitely a headwind. For me, that means range and basically almost no upside on stocks. What Bitcoin has, what crypto has, [are these] idiosyncratic variables that can really, just for short periods of time, cause it to completely de-correlate and go ballistic either way, up or down. IM thinking of.”
While staying long, Krüger warns that if inflation doesn’t drop further, the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates higher than expected, which could send crypto to new lows.
“I think the bottom is in, yes. I’m playing the long side. But I could definitely be wrong. Stuff can happen and the bottom can go through. Mainly, inflation could end up being actually sticky as some of the bears are saying based on how the payrolls and the The US job market is still very hot.
So if it doesn’t provide any leeway and core services, basically [if the] the inflation wall is not falling as expected, we could see the Fed pushing up to 6.5% percent, and then… it would make sense to trade new lows.”
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