‘Don’t Short When It’s Dark Green’ — How To Trade The 2024 Bitcoin Halving
Bitcoin (BTC) is entering prime “buy the dip” territory as the clock ticks down to the 2024 block support halving.
That’s the conclusion of several well-known market participants this month, with Bitcoin just a year away from its “very interesting” next halving.
Bitcoin vs. Halving: Time to buy?
Bitcoin halving cycles are known to follow patterns in terms of price activity in a given period.
These four-year “epochs” have so far featured a macro high and macro low for BTC price, with these events also four years apart.
Also, the macro low in each cycle has tended to occur just over a year before the next halving. For longtime Bitcoin figures, including crypto media guru Pete Rizzo, therefore, there is little reason to believe the future will be significantly different.
“A small reminder that the world’s most valuable money is designed to become more scarce. Plan accordingly,” he wrote in part of a tweet on May 12.
Rizzo celebrated the third anniversary of the 2020 halving, and an accompanying chart highlighted BTC price behavior in relation to how many months remained before a halving event.
In the comments, investor and entrepreneur Alistair Milne went further, suggesting that for those looking to profit from BTC exposure, the time to buy is now, while the months leading up to the halving are less favorable entry points.
“Don’t short when it’s dark green and be all in before it’s blue…,” he in summary about the diagram’s content.
PlanB: 2024 halving “not priced in”
Earlier this month, another popular but controversial Bitcoin industry figure used the same halving narrative to insist that the price cycles were not a matter of chance.
Related: Bitcoin Halving: How It Works and Why It Matters
In a separate post, PlanB, the pseudonymous creator of the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) family of Bitcoin price forecasting models, claimed that half of market participants believed the relationship between halvings and price to be random.
His comments came in the context of how halvings relate to S2F, a theory that itself continues to see widespread criticism as a result of missed price targets from 2021 onwards.
Nevertheless, also for PlanB, BTC/USD remains low, with the upcoming halving not yet given sufficient market consideration.
“Why isn’t bitcoin S2F/halving priced in? Because ~50% believe the BTC price jumps after the last 3 halvings (red) are a fluke,” wrote next to an illustrative diagram.
“Halving is the key to S2F, but these critics focus on autocorrelation between halvings and conclude that there is no correlation between S2F/halvings and price. I obviously disagree. Halving in 2024 will be very interesting!”
In the ensuing discussion, PlanB called the idea of the Bitcoin price increasing as halvings reduce the available supply, or “flow,” a “no-brainer.”
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This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
