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Bitcoin’s hashrate has been running hot despite the lower prices and the recent increase in difficulty. In fact, blocks are discovered faster than the average for block intervals of ten minutes, and because of this factor, the network’s reward halving may come sooner than expected. While some halving counters that simply utilize the ten-minute average note that the halving is expected in May or April 2024, halving counters that utilize precise block interval times show that the halving event could occur as early as March 1, 2024.
While the cryptocurrency community is focused on The Merge, the hash power behind the Bitcoin network has been higher than usual, causing block intervals to speed up. Currently, there are 244.62 exahashes per second (EH/s) dedicated to the blockchain, and on September 4, 2022, it lost a rapid lifetime peak at 301.45 EH/s in block height NOK 752,510.
Just before the end of August, Bitcoin.com News reported on how Bitcoin’s block times have been much faster than the average of ten minutes. When block times are faster than the ten minute average and consistently remain faster in the two weeks leading up to a difficulty change, the shift will increase the difficulty.
That’s what happened on August 31, when the Bitcoin network printed the second largest difficulty increase in 2022. The difficulty increase did not slow down the miners, and the next difficulty change, expected on September 15, is expected to increase again by more than 3%.
Blocking times have been much faster than the ten-minute interval and 9/11 average blocking time was less than eight minutes. The speed of block discovery has meant that the halving of the Bitcoin network could come much sooner than most expected. However, the estimate is based on data and speeds recorded right now, and there is still more than a year to go which could change things indefinitely.
Today’s data from bitcoinsensus.com and calculations from nicehash.com indicates that Bitcoin’s fourth halving event will occur in March 2024. The date is well before the commonly used 3 May 2024 estimatewhich utilizes a ten-minute block interval to calculate the half-life date.
In fact, bitcoinsensus.com shows two counters with one based on current block times (8.50 minutes) and a counter based on the average of ten minutes per block. Bitcoinsensus.com estimates that the current halving date, based on actual block times, will be March 2, 2024. So instead of 598 days away, the Bitcoin block is estimated to be 509 days away.
Nicehash.com’s halving counter shows that the date could occur on March 1, 2024, or a day earlier than the estimate shown on bitcoinsensus.com’s web portal. Every time 210,000 blocks are mined, the block reward is halved.
The current block reward is 6.25 BTC per block and when the next halving takes place, miners will get 3.125 coins per block after halving. A closer halving suggests that the price may increase faster than expected as bitcoin’s value usually rises before the block reward is halved.
What do you think about the halving of the Bitcoin block coming sooner than expected? Let us know what you think about this topic in the comments section below.
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