Crypto and commodity politics are at stake in three close races

Billions of dollars in subsidies for farmers and the future of cryptocurrency regulation are at risk of being in the hands of rookie subcommittee chairs next year, regardless of which party wins control of Congress.

Even if Democrats defy history and retain their majority in the House of Representatives, lawmakers in line to lead panels handling commodities and risk management may not be back.

Democratic Reps. Sean Patrick Maloney (N.Y.) and Angie Craig (Minn.) are in re-election contests rated as tossups by the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter. So is Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.), chairman of the Senate Agriculture Committee on Commodities, Risk Management and Trade.

If they get their gifts in the next Congress, they will influence US policy at a crucial time.

Every five years, Congress revisits the Farm Bill, a multifaceted measure that sets how much federal money will be approved to keep the nation’s food supply stable and grocery prices affordable, in part through subsidies to growers. The 2018 version (Public Law 115-334) covered spending of about $428 billion over five years.

“The biggest undertaking available almost immediately in the new session is going to be writing the 2023 Farm Bill,” said soon-to-be-retired Rep. Cheri Bustos (D-Ill.), who chairs the General Farm Commodities and Risk Management Subcommittee. Craig is next in seniority on that panel, and “if Angie is chairing that, I’m sure that will be her main focus,” Bustos said in an interview.

All three Democrats face headwinds, with Republicans favoring flipping at least one chamber of Congress. The party in the White House gained House seats only three times in the 22 midterm elections from 1934-2018, losing an average of 28 House seats and four Senate seats. It has done better in the Senate, and gained seats six times.

(Photo: Yara Nardi-Pool/Getty Images)

Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (DN.Y.) shown at a 2019 congressional hearing.

“I don’t think it’s a neutral environment, I think it’s a Republican-leaning one,” said Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics. As Craig, Maloney and Warnock campaign on their agricultural credentials, “every little bit helps,” he said, “given how red many rural places are.”

Digital Asset Oversight

Unless Democrats can pass something in the lame-duck session, next year could also be pivotal for Bitcoin and other virtual currency companies, some of which are subject to competing government regulators.

The Subcommittee on Commodity Exchanges, Energy and Credit, which Maloney chairs, has examined the oversight of digital assets.

Maloney’s subcommittee and members of the Senate Agriculture Committee have separately considered whether to move forward with legislation that would consolidate regulation of digital money with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission instead of the Securities and Exchange Commission.

A federal judge in 2018 upheld the CFTC’s jurisdiction over virtual currency trading. SEC Chairman Gary Gensler has said that most digital assets are securities subject to the agency’s rules.

Read more: Push to give CFTC more influence over crypto trading profits Steam (2)

The panel that Craig could chair has focused on the crop insurance portion of the farm bill, which includes subsidies to help farmers afford to pay the premiums on their safety net policies. Among the decisions going forward is whether that assistance should be extended to those who grow several types of crops.

(Photo: Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)

Rep. Angie Craig (D-Minn.) shown at a news conference on Dec. 14, 2021.

“The commodity title is one of the most important titles on the bill,” said former Rep. Mike Conaway (R-Texas), a lobbyist and former chairman of the House Agriculture Committee. “You’ll see a lot of work done to tweak it or maybe introduce new concepts.”

On her legislative website, Craig lists a “strong farm safety net” as a top priority. She also sponsored a measure (HR 7675) that sought to create a task force for the USDA to address disruptions in the farm supply chain.

Whoever writes that part of the farm bill will also be asked to examine the impact of inflation on essential farm inputs like fertilizer, which spiked in price after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, said Conaway, whose lobbying clients include FTX and the American Crop Insurance Association.

“It’s Nuts”

Each of the embattled lawmakers has a rural constituency, and their work on agriculture policy is a way to show voters bipartisan achievements.

For example, Warnock’s work as chairman included work on debt relief for minority farmers (Public Law 117-2) in 2021, and this year he pushed to replace that program with non-racial relief after white farmers sued, claiming the program was discriminatory .

The Democrats’ tax, climate and health package (Public Law 117-169) ultimately included $3.1 billion in debt relief for farmers struggling to pay their bills, along with $2.2 billion in funding for farmers who have experienced discrimination from the USDA.

Farmers get $800 million in debt relief under controversial program

In his re-election campaign against former football player Herschel Walker (R), Warnock’s campaign aired a TV ad touting a two-part letter he directed last year to Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack and U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai calling for the elimination of trade barriers against southern peanut farmers. The ad shows the senator standing on a pile of legumes as he boasts about the state’s robust peanut market. “It’s wrong,” Warnock says on the spot.

Maloney’s campaign responded to an inquiry about his subcommittee work by referring Chris Pawleski, a vegetable and fruit farmer in that district.

Pawleski, who has described himself as a grassroots public policy advocate, said he had urged Maloney to support farm debt relief and worked with the congressman on trade and flood mitigation issues. “Having members on the authorization committee helps tremendously,” Pawleski said. “It makes what I do a lot easier.”

Of course, if historical trends continue and Republicans gain power in the Nov. 8 election, they will be the ones with clubs and decision-making power, relegating the former chairmen to relying on relationships and persuasive skills to influence federal policy on farm subsidies, nutrition policy and regulation of cryptocurrency.

Overall, current ranking members on the Agriculture Subcommittees are well positioned to slide into the Chair roles; just rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.), the top Republican for nutrition, oversight and department operations, is in a highly competitive race.

Neither panel has done enough, in Conaway’s mind, to lay the groundwork for a bill affecting as much as 10% of the nation’s economic output.

“We have an incredible amount of learning that is going to happen in a very short period of time,” he said.

To contact the reporters about this story: Zach C. Cohen in Washington at [email protected]; Maeve Sheehey in Washington at [email protected]

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Katherine Rizzo on [email protected]; Anna Yukhananov on [email protected]