ChatGPT: 15% chance of Bitcoin price to zero

Grogan commented by saying that GPT is a big fan of bitcoin but is more skeptical of altcoins and their resilience.

For Dogecoin, for example, he estimates a 45% chance that something similar will ever happen by 2035, and for Litecoin the estimate is 35%.

For Ethereum, on the other hand, it is 20%, or only slightly more than bitcoin.

ChatGPT’s predictions of bitcoin and crypto market trends

It should be noted that to get these results, Grogan used a jailbreak for GPT that he calls JamesGPT (Just Accurate Markets Estimation System), which allows for future predictions on any topic.

At the same time, he questions whether such a tool is really useful for researchers, especially for uncovering biases.

In fact, as far as is known, such predictions cannot be considered reliable at all. It is not even clear how ChatGPT formulates them.

What is known is that JamesGPT makes GPT “weigh” its beliefs on various topics, although the results given may not be clear cut and may change slightly based on changes in the markets.

Grogan says that he has asked GPT4 the exact same question 100 times and received answers that are actually quite consistent, with a standard deviation of less than 10 percent.

What remains interesting, however, is the fact that ChatGPT likely pulls this data from the web, or at least from sources he deems reliable.

So his predictions can at least be seen as a sort of “consensus average” of sources he considers authoritative.

ChatGPT’s Bitcoin Price Predictions

One should not be fooled by the way the question is asked. In fact, to interpret ChatGPT’s answer regarding Bitcoin’s implosion in the next 12 years, one must consider not so much that he predicts a 15 percent probability of this happening, but more importantly that he actually considers it 85 percent impossible.

This is why, according to Grogan, GPT is a big fan of bitcoin.

It should be said that such a low estimated probability of Bitcoin’s failure in the medium/long term is quite common, especially among Bitcoiners, although for maximalists it is probably even lower, if not close to zero.

Thus, ChatGPT is not a bitcoin maximalist, but seems to have similar “ideas” to bitcoiners.

In light of the above considerations regarding the method by which ChatGPT makes these predictions, there appear to be two explanations for this reasoning.

Either ChatGPT primarily includes bitcoiners among the sources considered authoritative regarding bitcoin, or indeed, even in the world of mainstream finance, the hypothesis of a true implosion of bitcoin is considered marginal.

The fact is that other similar initiatives have produced similar results, meaning that there now seems to be a widespread opinion among experts that it is highly unlikely that bitcoin will actually implode within a decade or so.

Therefore, the widespread consensus is probably precisely that of a fairly low probability of implosion, but by no means non-existent.

ChatGPT’s predictions for the future of altcoins

The argument does not change much for Ethereum, whose consensus seems to believe at 80% that failure in the next dozen years is impossible.

For Dogecoin, on the other hand, only 55% believe its total failure is impossible, with a 45% probability that such a catastrophic scenario could actually happen.

It should not be forgotten that a -99.999% corresponds to a virtual total reset in value, because it means, for example, a move to 100,000 to 1, i.e. a 100,000-fold reduction in price.

For bitcoin, this would mean a price below $0.3, a level crossed in 2010, the first year of trading on exchanges, and never touched since. In other words, it would mean a return to its original irrelevance.

For Ethereum, that would mean a drop to $0.018, a level it has never been at, and which would be far lower than even $0.4 in 2015.

So while there seems to be no consensus on a possible failure of bitcoin in the next dozen years, and not much more so on Ethereum, when it comes to altcoins, the argument is different.

However, it should be emphasized that there is actually no assurance that ChatGPT’s predictions actually reflect the true consensus of analysts considered authoritative, and moreover, these predictions can easily change over time.

One way to try to get a sense of how reliable they are is to ask him to predict price movements in the short term, or even better in the medium term, so that in a few months, or at most a few years. , we can then see how reliable or not his predictions actually turn out to be.