Can Bitcoin [BTC] defy the infamous ‘March Chronicle’ in 2023?
- BTC’s price action has the potential to head towards the usual March decline.
- Coins that had moved in the past decade now outnumbered those held on exchanges.
Bitcoin [BTC] has a “habit” of underperforming March over the years, making it the second-worst month on record, outside of 2013. While the first two months of the year may have had an excellent start, investors may need to be careful in favor of the red-loving month, said Miles Deutscher.
2023 is off to a good start #Bitcoinwith 2 consecutive green months (assuming today’s monthly restrictions).
But looking ahead: March has historically been the 2nd worst month – on average $BTC return of -5.72% (ex. 2013).
What is your outlook for March?👇 pic.twitter.com/jm3JB0JJ0y
— Miles Deutscher (@milesdeutscher) 28 February 2023
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Can the royal coin buck the trend?
In the first 30 days of the year, BTC went on a 40% rise. Although the second month was not the same impressivethe king coin gained 6.71% in the last 14 days, as shown by CoinGecko. So, does the technical outlook support a green continuation, or will it end in a fallback?
Considering the exponential moving average (EMA), it was possible that BTC could trend towards its performance of ten years back. This was because the 20-day EMA (blue) was above the 50-day EMA (yellow).
While the short to medium term may offer profit opportunities, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remained in a neutral state at 50.98. This suggests that the momentum at press time tended to support a strong bullish or bearish sentiment.
Source: TradingView
Strong-willed holders of the decade surpass…
In an interesting update, chain analyst and Reflective Research co-founder Will Clemente shared that 10-year dormant addresses were more than BTC held on exchanges at press time.
This may not be surprising, however, as it was unusual for long-term holders to suddenly exit their positions. But short-term speculators largely failed to see out the bear market season.
Another on-chain analyst, Willy Woo, worked not surprised of the data. Noting that 2.6 million BTC have not moved during the period, Woo mentioned that Chainalysis estimates that number will grow to 3.7 million by 2030.
Well, the reasons why the untouched addresses are surpassing current exchange entries may be related to the FTX collapse in November 2022. This was also confirmed by Sentiment, as both BTC and Ethereum’s [ETH] five-year exchange supply hit lows.
Source: Sentiment
Realistic or not, here it is BTC’s market value in ETH’s terms
Furthermore, Bitcoin Quant Trader Charles Edwards tweeted that the rise in January was no accident. He went on to say that it was the start of the bull market while giving his reasons.
January was massive for Bitcoin, not just because the price went up a lot. I believe it was the start of the Bitcoin bull market for these 9 reasons:
— Charles Edwards (@caprioleio) 28 February 2023
Edwards pointed to several factors, including macroeconomic changes and miners’ unprofitability. However, he hammered home the halving effect in 2024, noting that
“We are at optimal halving cycle timing where Bitcoin typically bottoms (Q4 2022 and Q1 2023). Like clockwork, Bitcoin has bottomed in the 12-18 month window before each halving in the past.”
