Exactly one month ago today, bitcoin was trading below $20,000 per unit as crypto markets continued to react to rising inflation levels and central bank policy. However, a month later, the world’s leading crypto token has moved above $23,000, despite consumer prices rising to multi-decade highs. So with this in mind, where could bitcoin potentially be headed in the coming weeks?
Current market status
In July, bitcoin (BTC) largely consolidated between a floor of $18,900 and a ceiling of $23,600 as volatility in crypto markets was higher in anticipation of the Fed’s potential 75 basis point (bps) hike.
Since then, the Federal Reserve has hiked in back-to-back sessions, raising interest rates by 0.75% in July and August.
This came as inflation in the US moved to its highest level in more than four decades, and with growing concerns about a pending global recession.
Despite this, bitcoin has been quietly moving higher as the uncertainty plaguing the market has slowly begun to subside.
Although concerns about the extent of a recession remain, traders worried about the course of action the Fed would take have seen some of those questions answered.
As a result, price strength in BTC has largely increased in recent weeks, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) moving from a reading of 29 on July 5 to now at 54.37.
Outlook for August
At the time of writing this analysis, BTC/USD is currently trading at $23,019.32, just hours removed from the last non-farm payrolls report.
After concerns about a potential slowdown in the US labor market, payrolls for July came in at 528,000 last month, against expectations of 250,000.
This could work as a positive for bitcoin bulls, who have taken a risk-off approach in recent months, on concerns over a potential global recession amid the inflationary crisis.
While these concerns will continue, investors now have more reason to be bullish as the market landscape begins to slowly change.
This week, gold has risen to a one-month high against the dollar, with WTI oil falling to its lowest point since before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February.
BTC now faces some important tests in the coming weeks, the most important of which is whether it has enough momentum to rise past a key and much higher ceiling of $24,700.
If it is able to do so, bitcoin could soar above $25,000, with bulls then positioned for a move closer to $30,000 in September.
What price do you expect bitcoin to trade at in one month? Let us know your thoughts in the comments.
Eliman Dambell
Eliman brings an eclectic point of view to market analysis, having worked as a Broker Director, Retail Educator and Market Commentator in Crypto, Stocks and FX.
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