Bitcoin’s expected bottom based on previous bear markets

The past year or so has not been kind to the primary cryptocurrency, following many industry and macroeconomic setbacks.

Although the asset has lost roughly 80% of its value since its all-time high last November, some estimates show it could fall further, perhaps into four-digit territory.

• It was about a year ago when the industry boomed, led by the huge gains charted by the largest cryptocurrency. Perhaps driven by the futures ETF launched in the US, bitcoin had pumped to $69,000, marking a new all-time high.
• However, the tides began to change in the following months. Central banks adjusted their monetary policy from printing excessive amounts of their respective currencies to raising interest rates, trying to fight the rampant inflation they were creating.
• This, along with the war in Ukraine and a few other macroeconomic factors, pushed riskier assets south, and BTC was no exception. But the landscape worsened after several industry collapses, starting with Terra’s spectacular fallout.
• What followed was several related companies halting withdrawals, seeking emergency funding or even filing for bankruptcy. One crypto company stood out as the potential savior – FTX. SBF’s brainchild seemed to be everywhere with loans, bids or outright acquisitions.
• Still, it didn’t work out so well, and it turned out that the savior needed to save on his own. Another spectacular collapse followed, which, as expected, drove BTC back down. The worst so far came last week, when bitcoin fell to a two-year low below $16,000.
• That meant a decline of almost 80% since the November 2021 ATH. But popular crypto analyst DonAlt warned that bitcoin may not be out of the woods just yet. Comparing the current bear cycle to the previous two, the strategist said BTC could fall as low as $9,500 if it mimics the 2014-2015 bear market or $11,000 if the events of 2017-2018 happen again.

Comparing the current $BTC the bear market of the previous two.
So far the price is down almost 80%

If this bear market goes as bad as 2014-2015, you’ll be looking at about $9.5k

If it goes like the 2017-2018 bear market, it will cost ~$11k. pic.twitter.com/irPVMZdDWb

— DonAlt (@CryptoDonAlt) 19 November 2022