Bitcoin Will See ‘Long Bear Market’ Says Trader With BTC Price Stuck At $19K
Bitcoin (BTC) failed to recoup recent losses until July 2 as traders prepared for stagnant price action to continue.
“Downtrend acceleration” still in effect
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView tracked a weak BTC/USD as it fell around the $19,000 mark entering the weekend.
The Wall Street trading week ended without surprises, with US stocks virtually flat – providing little impetus for crypto volatility. The US dollar index, or DXY, fresh off a retest of twenty-year highs, ran out to circle 105 points.
Order book data from the largest global exchange Binance showed that BTC/USD caught between buying and selling liquidity near the spot price, ensuring a lack of volatility until traders maneuvered or significantly added to bids or requests.
Zooming out, the outlook hardly seemed any more optimistic for bulls.
For popular trading account Altcoin Sherpa, current conditions promised an extended period of uninspiring performance from Bitcoin, which could last much of 2022.
“It will take months of digging around and gathering once the bottom is found,” they told their Twitter followers:
“And the bottom might not even come until a few months from today. Craving a long bear market IMO.”
The sentiment was echoed by trader and analyst Rekt Capital, who argued that Bitcoin had yet to make new macro lows or start consolidating.
#BTC may still be in the “Downtrend Acceleration” phase of the correction
But this phase will precede the “Multi-Month Consolidation” phase
Which will precede the “New Macro Uptrend” phase$BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin
— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) 1 July 2022
“Redeem yourself. Get your Bitcoin in cold storage. Sit tight,” Checkmate, leading chain analyst at the research firm Glassnode, added.
Will volume all-time highs echo 2018?
The next week or two could prove to be this cycle’s lows, meanwhile, giving some hope to those concerned that the bottom is still months away.
Related: Price Analysis 7/1: BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, ADA, SOL, DOGE, DOT, LEO, SHIB
In a Twitter thread a day, economist, trader and entrepreneur Alex Krueger noted that volume denominated in BTC reached all-time highs last month.
“As a general rule, trading volume is the highest when markets capitulate,” he explained.
As a general rule, trading volume is highest when markets capitulate, and such capitulation creates large bottoms.
This weekly chart includes the aggregate bitcoin volume for most BTC pairs (spot & perpetuals across exchanges).
Volume reached its all-time high two weeks ago. pic.twitter.com/6ONLibQiL2
— Alex Krüger (@krugermacro) 2 July 2022
In the bear market of 2018, he added, the record volume actually happened several weeks before the bottom, and should this time follow the trend, July could be the place for the next one.
Previously, Rekt Capital had claimed that the volume on the buy side had not been strong enough to sustain new price upside in the long term, while at the same time highlights the 2018 volume movements.
The views and opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trade involves risk, you should do your own research when making a decision.
