Bitcoin Sees Record Stock-to-Flow Miss — Creator of BTC Price Model Dismisses FTX ‘blip’
Bitcoin (BTC) is now further than ever from the target price according to the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model.
The latest data shows that BTC/USD has deviated from planned price growth to a degree never seen before.
Stock-to-Flow sets a grim new record
With BTC price suppression ongoing in light of the FTX scandal, an already bearish trend has only strengthened.
This has implications for many core aspects of the Bitcoin network, particularly miners, but some of its best-known metrics are also feeling the heat.
Among them is S2F, which sees the price forecasts coming under increasing strain – and criticism.
Enjoys great popularity until Bitcoin’s last all-time high in November 2021, the model uses block subsidy halving events as the central element in plotting exponential price growth over the years.
S2F allows for significant price deviations and is not “just up” – but even considering these, current targets are far higher than the spot price.
According to dedicated monitoring resource S2F Multiple, Bitcoin should trade at just over $72,000 on November 19, giving a multiple of -1.47.
On November 10, the multiple reached -1.5 – a record negative reading in S2F’s lifetime – as the FTX effect hit the market.
PlanB: “Feels like the world is ending”
An alternative iteration of the S2F model divergence from analytics platform LookIntoBitcoin produced similar conclusions about this month’s price action.
Related: Bitcoin Price Could Still Fall 40% After FTX ‘Lehman Moment’ — Analysis
“Price has now strayed further below the S2F line than ever before,” creator Philip Swift, wrote in part of an accompanying Twitter post.
“Currently a variation of -1.26 against the previous low of -1.21 back in 2011.”
PlanB, the pseudonymous analyst responsible for the creation—and now, the defense—of S2F nonetheless remains cool on the utility.
“It feels like the world ended, but FTX will probably just be a small blip on the long-term radar,” he argued in his own tweet.
PlanB has made increasingly strong accusations about the model in 2022, these include claims that the basis is fraudulent.
In response to the growing discrepancy between target and spot price, he argued that even a relatively wide range for price to trade within and still keep the model valid was still more useful than no insight at all.
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