Bitcoin Price Falls 14% in August as Trader Warns of ‘Macro Decline’
Bitcoin (BTC) has sealed its worst August performance since 2015 after the monthly candle closed down 13.9%.
Weekly light “doesn’t look good”
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView confirm that BTC/USD ended the month at $19,990.
A blow to bulls’ attempts to stabilize the spot price, the August close was only the second monthly candle close below the $20,000 mark (depending on the exchange used) since late 2020.
While the end of June was retained as a macro low on the monthly chart, the performance took traders into strong bearish territory. Among them was Crypto Tony, who warned that the stage was set for deeper losses ahead.
His outlook, he told Twitter followers on the day, saw him “leaning towards a macro pullback.”
This is my go to macro #Bitcoin now and until we see
– A change in market behavior and becoming macro bullish (taking out $30,000 and entering a higher high)
I’m leaning against a macro roller blind, which I’ll look to enter #Altcoins for remember https://t.co/qz7RAgw4gH
— Crypto Tony (@CryptoTony__) 1 September 2022
Caleb Franzen, senior market analyst at Cubic Analytics, added that the first weekly light in September is already taking Bitcoin further into the red.
“The weekly candle for Bitcoin does not look good, although it is still very early in the week,” he warned next to an explanatory diagram.
“The long top week and selloff is objectively a bad sign if it closes like this. Especially if it turns into a red light. Something to watch for the rest of the week.”
Others saw more optimistic implications in the month-end.
Popular Twitter account Dave the wave highlighted the moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) as having predicted the downside from local highs above $25,000 and now inversely favoring relief for bulls.
On the basis of this indicator, a further correction was also predicted [at a time when uber-bullishness dominated on CT].https://t.co/Y6ONHetp80
— dave the wave (@davthewave) 1 September 2022
Co-trader Johal Miles repeated the potentially bullish spillover effect of a mid-August MACD cross, one that had nevertheless seen “no continuation yet”.
New “historic lows” for hodl metrics
One on-chain indicator in particular, meanwhile, reinforced the sentiment that current BTC price levels are for accumulating, not selling.
Related: BTC Price Peak Alerts Appear As 10K BTC Leaves Wallet After 9 Years
Bitcoin’s Realized Value Hodl (RHODL) ratio, which measures the relative value of coins that have moved in recent weeks compared to a year or two earlier, is now at an all-time low.
The dubious achievement was noticed by Philip Swift, the creator of the on-chain data resource LookIntoBitcoin.
“The RHODL ratio is now at an all-time low. Which indicates that short-term prices paid for $BTC are relatively low than those paid 1-2 years ago,” he explained.
“Useful way to identify sentiment via actual behavior. Shows the market is v.bearish bitcoin right now. Accumulate.”
The views and opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trade involves risk, you should do your own research when making a decision.
