Bitcoin Price Could Still Fall 40% After FTX ‘Lehman Moment’ — Analysis
Bitcoin (BTC) saw another rejection of $17,000 on November 18 as jittery markets weathered more FTX fallout.
BTC Gets $12,000 Price Target
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed that BTC/USD failed to turn $17,000 to support – a trend that was in place for almost a week.
The pair, like major altcoins, remained firmly bound by cold feet over the FTX debacle and its knock-on effects for various crypto businesses.
For analysts, the outlook remained equally bleak, with already gloomy forecasts worsening in light of recent events.
“This underperformance of all cryptoassets is here to stay until most of the uncertainty has cleared – probably only near the turn of the year,” trading firm QCP Capital wrote in its latest circular to Telegram channel subscribers of the day.
In a comprehensive market summary, QCP wrote that price forecasts for both Bitcoin and Ether (ETH) would now have to fall to reflect the impact of FTX.
Updating a forecast based on the Elliott Wave theory from June confirmed that BTC/USD now had a target of $12,000 and ETH/USD $800.
“On a side note, crypto markets have been trading similar to commodities ever since the 2017 peak – with extended Wave 5s being the longest wave,” the post added.
“Therefore, such potential price action with new lows into the new year will be characteristic of previous bear market selling.”
An accompanying chart highlighted the difference between crypto and stocks in November, the correlation between them being badly shaken thanks to crypto’s underperformance.
Popular trader and analyst Cantering Clark, meanwhile, noted that if the current bear market in risk assets were to replicate the global financial crisis, there were still big losses to come.
“The Lehman bankruptcy was the climax of the 2008 financial crisis. It was rock bottom qualitatively, but the market stalled and then committed to 40% lower,” part of a tweet read.
“Never say never, and don’t let your guard down.”
As Cointelegraph reported, $13,500 has also become a popular downside target.
Crypto pie “massively cut”
Still, QCP also expressed concern over declining volumes and open interest (OI) across both centralized (CEXs) and decentralized (DEXs) exchanges.
Related: US Crypto Exchanges Lead Bitcoin Exodus: Over $1.5B in BTC Withdrawn in One Week
“So far, CEX derivatives exchange volumes have been the most affected. Combined futures OI is now back to pre-2021 levels, a massive step backwards for the industry,” it wrote.
As for DEXes, it said the data “suggests that the entire crypto-kai is being massively cut.”
“Overall, DeFi TVL is now less than 1/4 of last year’s peak!” post summarized along with more explanatory diagrams.
“Even DEXs expected to gain the most have only seen volumes rise to July/Aug levels, even with all the emergency tokens/stables/chain swaps that had to be done after FTX.”
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