Bitcoin Price Could ‘Easily’ Reach $20,000 In Next 4 Months – Philip Swift

Bitcoin (BTC) is done with its bear market, but the coming months could see a return to $20,000.

That’s the outlook for Philip Swift, a veteran Bitcoin market analyst who co-founded trading suite Decentrader and data resource Look Into Bitcoin.

In his latest interview with Cointelegraph, Swift takes a look at what the near to long term future holds for BTC price action.

After predicting the end of the bear market at the end of 2022, Swift is sticking to his assessment of underlying price strength, while being cautious about the odds of a deeper correction than last week’s 10% drop.

Bulls face many obstacles on the way to new records, he says, with government policies particularly problematic in terms of potential price suppression.

Nevertheless, there is every reason to believe that for now the bottom is in, and a solid growth period awaits Bitcoin in the latter half of the year.

Cointelegraph (CT): In our last interview in October, you predicted that the Bitcoin bear market would be over in 3 months. Think it’s gone for good?

Philip Swift (PS): Yes.

It really felt like we were close to max pain back in October and we had the final capitulation shortly after in November. BTC then started to rise in January, 3 months after our interview.

This chart highlights how the current bear market has actually been quite similar to previous cycles in terms of timing, showing that human nature never really changes:

That doesn’t mean we can’t have a decent correction in the next few months. We may experience some volatility and notches after what has been an outstanding Q1 2023, where BTC has rallied 80%. I wouldn’t be surprised if we need to cool down for a little while.

CT: Since Bitcoin Gained 80% In Q1, Has BTC Price Performance In 2023 Surprised You?

PS: It is not unusual for Bitcoin to make big moves like that after such a long period of depression. As prices rallied from the lows, we could see that funding rates remained flat/negative, indicating that there was a lot of disbelief among derivatives traders.

That helped the BTC price continue to rise all the way to $30,000 with a series of short squeezes.

CT: A large number of market participants remain skeptical of this year’s rally and expect a return of $20,000 or worse. To what extent do you agree with them?

PS: It is definitely possible as it would only be a -25% move to the downside from today’s prices. For a volatile asset like Bitcoin that could simply play out at some point in the next 3-4 months. Beyond that, I think it’s becoming increasingly unlikely as I think the halving narrative will kick in later in the year, which should increase buying pressure.

Related: Bitcoin price flatlines near $27K — What could trigger the next move?

CT: We’ve had various regulatory bombs that Bitcoin has managed to bounce back time and time again over the past few months. Do you think the market can continue to shake off such “mini” black swans?

PS: I do as long as these mini black swans are fairly specific and not industry wide. To expand on that, my biggest fear for Bitcoin is a coordinated attack by big governments to cut off fiat banking and the offramps that support the space.

I know that Bitcoin is built to survive in isolation, but I believe that if such a coordinated effort is executed well, it will suppress the price significantly for a long time.

What we are seeing in the US right now in terms of regulations is not particularly encouraging. It’s definitely something to watch over the next couple of years.

CT: What is your view on the US banking crisis and its aftermath? Are we in for more shock events in the near to mid-term?

PS: We will have to wait and see if recent events in the banking sector were just the tip of the iceberg. However, I believe that such events are ultimately a positive catalyst for Bitcoin – especially among younger people, who will continue to question why they are better off keeping their savings in a bank where there is custodial risk, as opposed to a decentralized one equity like Bitcoin.

Ultimately, I think banking sector issues related to customer deposits are long-term bullish for Bitcoin.

CT: All things being equal, how do you see BTC/USD performing this quarter and beyond? Is it too early to talk about a build-up before halving?

PS: I think we may need some sideways action from here for a few months after the stinky Q1 Bitcoin had. Towards the end of the year, late Q3 and into Q4, I expect the pre-halving narrative to really kick in, which should have a positive impact on price.

There should also be enough time for the market to heal post-FTX. We should also have gone through much of Mt. Gox sale risk. Any remaining sales should be evaluated and priced in by the market at that time.

CT: Filbfilb (CEO of Decentrader) recently released an analysis of how Bitcoin might perform during the next halving cycle and doubled down on $180,000 as his top target. Where do you stand on the next cycle’s blowout peak?

PS: It is certainly possible. I expect long term holders to start offloading bitcoins as the price goes above $80,000.

It will start bringing new offers into the market. Eventually, there will be too much supply for demand to pick up. I expect it to be over $100,000.

Exactly where is very difficult to call. Back in 2017 we saw a price increase from $10,000 up to $20,000 in less than 2 weeks! Many forget that. If we get another top like this, such volatility makes it extremely difficult or almost impossible to call the exact top.

I think a realistic range would be $120,000-$210,000.

CT: What BTC price metrics currently have your attention?

PS: Bull market comparison: useful for understanding where we are from a time perspective.

• 1yr HODL Wave: Shows that long-term owners have accumulated and will not sell a lot to the price making a new all-time high.

• MVRV Z-score: Indicates levels of market-wide “profit” – the difference between market value and realized cap. Currently, the market has just moved back into profit as the Z-score (blue line) has moved above the green accumulation zone. There is still some way to go until we approach a market top.

CT: Is the NFT market dead?

PS: No, but it is currently in a state of severe depression.

• While quality collections are mostly flat in USD terms, almost all major collections are down against ETH in recent months.
• Volumes are way down since the peaks of the bull market – $150 million per week against the peak of $1 billion.
• We’re even seeing NFT influencers on Twitter pivot to talk about other topics like AI. That’s not to say that these influencers aren’t long-term positive on NFTs, just that interest in short- to medium-term NFT prices has clearly faded.

That said, we believe we may soon be heading towards the final stages of the NFT bear market.

While there may be more general pain in the market, we expect to see strategic investors increasingly looking for quality NFTs at reasonable prices. This can provide relief for a small number of collections in the short term.

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This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading moves involve risk and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.