Bitcoin Nears Historic Bottom Territory, What’s Next For BTC?
Bitcoin has closed on key resistance but continues to move sideways over the past 24 hours as the altcoins sector shows more strength. The first cryptocurrency by market capitalization could form a range between its annual low of around $18,000 with a top near its previous highs.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $21,600 with sideways movement during the day and a loss of 7% in the past week.
Trader Josh Rager shared a potential thesis for the price of Bitcoin and its future performance. The cryptocurrency has historically formed a bottom for a certain period of time after the halving.
The event that reduces the reward for mining a Bitcoin block, Halving has been a consistent indicator of BTC’s future performance. In the past, as shown below, each of these events has been followed by a massive rally.
In 2017, Bitcoin rose from under $3,000 to its previous record high of $20,000. In 2012, BTC’s price crossed the $10 barrier and rose above $100 for the first time since its inception.
In 2020, Bitcoin went from a low of $3,000 to its current record high of $69,000. Each of these massive bull runs was followed by downside price action, similar to what BTC’s price has seen since late 2021, and long periods of consolidation.
Bitcoin can spend years moving sideways in a range before breaking out in price discovery. Rager believes the new series could fetch between $18,000 and $48,000. BTC can move between the top and bottom of that range until the next Halving event in 2024. The trader so:
If you zoom in you will notice that a range can be formed from the local bottom near $18k. In the next 18 months (before the next BTC halving) it can logically be retested where the price broke the next $48,000 or $50k for psychological purposes. Before the last BTC halving, the Bitcoin price created a high-low area (March crash). And the interval high (daily/weekly close) served as the key level that the price would break before it is first above $60k. We could potentially see similar around $50k.
Why Bitcoin is likely to trade north of $100K in 2024
This prediction should materialize in the coming months with BTC seeing a peak of $50,000, as Rager mentioned. In the future, the cryptocurrency may regain previous highs and re-enter price discovery.
But every time BTC appreciates after a halving, the profit percentage drops. Therefore, it is unlikely that the cryptocurrency will rise to 1 million dollars, as many have predicted. Rager believes around $200,000 should be an important price target. The merchant concluded:
Again pure speculation here with both timing and price. I’m not someone who wants to predict the price of Bitcoin, but what I can say is that I expect another 18 months with a huge range for Bitcoin. Followed by fireworks after the next BTC halving March/April 2024 until 2025.
