Bitcoin miners send less BTC to exchanges since 2020 halving despite FTX
Bitcoin (BTC) miners may send more BTC to exchanges this month – but overall their sales have crashed since 2020.
Data from the chain analysis platform CryptoQuant confirms that daily miner transfers to exchanges have decreased by two-thirds or more.
Miners Cool BTC Exchange Sales After FTX Spike
After BTC/USD lost 25% within days last week, existing concerns about mining solvency have increased.
Given their cost base and increasing hash rate, commentators warned that many miners may not be able to make ends meet – block subsidies and fees will not be enough to cancel expenses, mainly electricity.
However, the basics of the network tell a strange story – the hash rate continues to circle all-time highs and does not drop significantly, indicating that at least certain miners are maintaining network hash power, not shutting down operations en masse.
CryptoQuant, meanwhile, shows that on a daily basis, Bitcoin miners are not desperately selling coins to cover the shortfall in revenue.
On November 8th, the day of the FTX blowout, flows from miner wallets to exchanges were 1300 BTC. This was the largest single-day tally since September.
Overall, the period of FTX debacle has seen a relatively modest increase in sales compared to other peaks this year. Miners sent 4,540 BTC to exchanges on September 2, while on June 22, around the time BTC/USD fell to a then two-year low of $17,600, the day’s total was 5,729 BTC.
By zooming out, the picture becomes even more nuanced.
Since Bitcoin’s last block subsidy halving in May 2020, miners have significantly reduced their daily exchange sales.
Around the time of the halving, the seven-day moving average of mining exchange deposits was around 1,200 BTC per day.
The number varied significantly from day to day, but overall what is considered a peak in November 2022 was standard practice at the time.
Fast forward to October this year, and some days miners were sending less than 100 BTC to exchanges.
The block grant may have been halved and fees may amount to less revenue in US dollars, but there is still a clear trend in swap sales.
Put another way, the FTX episode has produced only a brief difference in miner outflows relative to their one-year moving average. This is summarized in CryptoQuant’s Miner Position Index (MPI).
A taste of things to come?
As Cointelegraph reported, Bitcoin miners last experienced an “emergency” — in terms of on-chain data — in August.
Related: Elon Musk Says BTC ‘Will Make It’ – 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week
The Hash Ribbons indicator, which is specifically designed to track miner capitulation, has been out of its red zone since then.
So far, nothing has been able to force miners back to mass output. This may yet change, as the latest Hash Ribbons chart data shows that hash rate trends are flattening out after several months of growth.
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