Bitcoin: How the FTX contagion reduced the impact of external factors on BTC

• Many BTC left exchange storage since the FTX exchange crashed in November.
• The Royal Mint continues to drift away from macroeconomic policy, but still adheres to traditional correlation.

Bitcoin [BTC] holders felt the impact of FTX collapse in the last quarter of 2022, but has held on to the aftermath associated with the unfortunate event. Twitter’s famous on-chain analyst Ali_charts believed that the event was a blessing in disguise for Bitcoin.

Read Bitcoins [BTC] Price prediction 2023-2024

The analyst based his conclusion on the way the king coin left exchanges and how holders resort to avoiding CEXs. Information obtained from Santiment showed that around 260,000 BTC had left the exchange’s shores since November. Also, 350,000 BTC has been kept out.

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$FTX collapse was bad for the industry, but good for #Bitcoin!

Since November 2022, data from @santimentfeed shows that 260,000 #BTC was subtracted #crypto stock exchanges and more than 350,000 $BTC has been kept out of exchanges.

Not your keys, not your coins. It’s that simple! pic.twitter.com/kc7iQ9KVYx

— Ali (@ali_charts) 9 February 2023

BTC now cares less about macro?

Remember that it was during this period that the BTC price fell below $16,000. In contrast, Messari’s Bitcoin Fourth Quarter (Q4) the report showed that the macroeconomic factors had minimal impact on the coin’s price.

Despite the unfavorable conditions, Bitcoin gained some positive results from the collapse. For example, active addresses increased by 2% from the previous quarter, while transactions followed up beforehand. All of these occurred in the face of a 4.50% interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve.

Source: Messari

Furthermore, BTC showed evidence of detachment from its reaction on February 9 FOMC meeting. Although Bitcoin may leave the band with the macro factors, it still correlated with the trends of the traditional markets.

How much is 1,10,100 BTCs worth today?

According to Santiment, the Bitcoin trend matched it see you later by The S&P 500 index [SPX] and gold.

At the time of writing, the BTC price was still in its weekly decline. The SPX was down to 4081 while gold was trading at 1877.

In the event that stock and gold prices continue their decline, there may be a chance that Bitcoin will find it difficult to repeat its bullish performance in January.

Source: Sentiment

An impending endless disconnection

In a related development, New York Fed Research has published a research article which explains the Bitcoin disconnection from the macro environmental elements.

Gianluca Benigno and Carlo Rosa, the authors of the research, described the decoupling as confusing since most speculative assets were subject to US monetary policy. The authors concluded that

“Instead, our analysis shows that while other US asset prices react to both the target and the path of monetary policy news, Bitcoin does not react to unexpected changes in the short-term interest rate, while its reaction to news about the future policy is not robust.”

But the conclusion may sound too hasty. Nevertheless, the events of the past four months, combined with BTC’s reaction to future guidelines, may determine whether or not the correlation will continue to exist.