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Bitcoin
was largely unchanged Monday, with the digital asset space largely outperforming the stock market since a selloff late last week in what could be a good sign for cryptocurrencies.
The price of Bitcoin is up less than 1% in the past 24 hours to $19,150. The biggest crypto fluctuated over the weekend – as one of the few risk-sensitive assets that trade 24/7, this tends to happen – but has definitely left behind its recent lows around $18,500.
Bitcoin remains outside the $20,000 to $25,000 range, which has provided some price stability since mid-June, but has received a correlation to the stock market. The
Dow Jones Industrial Average
and
S&P 500
plunged last Friday with the Dow hitting a new annual low below 30,000, a key threshold it first crossed in 2020. While Bitcoin also fell at the end of last week, dropping from near $20,000, it has halted its fall and rebounded while stocks were in good shape to continue their descent on Monday.
“On a day when stocks fall above 2%, you would expect Bitcoin to fall double or triple and not just around 3% weaker, which could mean that many long-term holders remain unaffected,” said Edward Moya, analyst at broker Oanda .
That stoic attitude seemed to continue on Monday. In fact, some traders even saw signs that Bitcoin may have bottomed as it bucks the decline in stocks. In focus is the relationship between the cost basis of long-term Bitcoin holders compared to short-term holders. Cost basis in crypto refers to the price of Bitcoin at the time of purchase and indicates whether a holder is underwater or not.
“After months of waiting, for only the fourth time ever, Bitcoin’s short-term holder cost basis has fallen below its long-term holder cost basis,” Will Clemente, co-founder of crypto firm Reflexivity Research, said via Twitter Saturday, with reference to data from Glassnode. “This indicates a bottom process.”
With both long-term and short-term holders under water, it could get worse – and indeed the macro picture remains bleak for risk-sensitive games like Bitcoin. Inflationary pressures remain prominent, with more data on rising prices due this week and central banks such as the Federal Reserve looking set to continue raising interest rates, reducing demand for risk assets and increasing the likelihood of a recession.
But the data, Clemente suggests, indicate prices may be at or near rock bottom.
“The next cross to look for is a short-term bull cross back over the long-term,” Clemente said, referring to a point where short-term Bitcoin holders will have a positive cost basis.
Beyond Bitcoin,
Ether
— the second-largest digital token — was down 1% at $1,300. Smaller cryptos or altcoins were deeper in the red, with
Solana
and
Cardano
both lost 3%. Memecoins showed much of the same, with
Dogecoin
and
Shiba Inu
both reduce 4%.
Write to Jack Denton at [email protected]