Bitcoin holders show rapid new accumulation for first time this bear, bottom signal?
On-chain data shows that Bitcoin holders have done some rapid new accumulation recently, which could lead to a bottom for the cycle.
Bitcoin 1w-1m realized cap UTXO age band has gone up sharply
As pointed out by an analyst in a CryptoQuant post, the percentage of BTC realized caps last moved between 1 week to 1 month ago has shown a rapid uptrend for the first time in this bear.
The “realized cap” is a Bitcoin capitalization model that values each coin in the circulating supply using the price at which it was last moved. The calculation then calculates the “true valuation” of BTC by adding up all these values of the individual coins.
This is different from the normal market value, where every coin in circulation has the same value; current Bitcoin price.
The “realized limit – UTXO age band” is an indicator that tells us the distribution of the realized limit for each age range in the market.
These age ranges specify ranges between which UTXOs (or more simply coins) falling under said age range were last moved.
The relevant age range here is the 1w-1m group, which includes all UTXOs that were last moved within 1 week to 1 month ago.
Here is a chart showing how the percentage of the realized rate contributed by this age range has changed over the years:
Looks like the value of the metric has sharply gone up in recent weeks | Source: CryptoQuant
As you can see in the graph above, the realized peak of the 1w-1m Bitcoin UTXO age band has observed a rapid uptrend recently.
The older end of this series, i.e. a month ago, is around when the crash due to the FTX collapse took place.
The indicator’s rise in value thus suggests that investors have made some new accumulation at the lowest levels after this crash.
This is the first time in this Bitcoin bear market that such a rapid new accumulation has taken place.
From the chart it is clear that such increases have historically coincided with cyclical low prices. Another interesting thing to note is that between these peaks in the metric during the previous two cycles there were 1358 days.
The current rise has come 1,444 days after the last one, which is the same length as the gap before. If there really is a pattern here, the Bitcoin bottom could be very close, if not already in.
BTC price
At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price is hovering around $16.8k, down 1% in the last week.
BTC plunges down | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView
Featured image from Kanchanara on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, CryptoQuant.com
