Bitcoin faces do-or-die weekly, monthly tight with macro trend at stake
Bitcoin (BTC) leaves traders guessing as the future of the bull market hinges on the last week of February.
In several tweets on February 17th, popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital flagged important resistance battles going on in BTC/USD across multiple timeframes.
Bitcoin price declines with bear market downtrend
Bitcoin hit fresh six-month highs this week as the final leg of its 2023 recovery kept the bull-bear debate raging.
After a consolidating start to the month, February has proven to be something of a turning point for Bitcoin’s price strength. Gains have been much harder to cement than in January, when BTC/USD ended up up nearly 40%.
For Rekt Capital, now is the time to pay attention – regardless of whether you trade daily, weekly or monthly time frames.
The weekly chart represents perhaps the biggest struggle in the aftermath of the bear market of 2022. Bitcoin is currently trying to break out of an area of resistance it failed to overcome last August, so far without success.
“Ultimately, a weekly close above this key area is what BTC needs to achieve to breach this converging resistance area to continue moving higher,” Rekt Capital wrote in part of his latest update on the weekly chart.
The picture is complicated thanks to two other major resistance trendlines overhead, these come in the form of the 50-week and 200-week moving averages (MAs).
As Cointelegraph reported, these have also just formed their first ever “death cross” – a potential nail in the coffin for those hoping for a new bull market to begin.
On monthly time frames, an equally tense situation develops. Here again, BTC/USD is “close to breaking the macro downtrend,” says Rekt Capital.
The upcoming monthly close will be the deciding factor, as continued strength could see Bitcoin begin March outside a falling trend line since the November 2021 peaks.
Although this would be a significant event, there are certain signs already suggest that it can become reality. Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI), previously at lows, “has already confirmed a new Bull Trend.”
BTC Price Analysis: Whales Target ‘Bull Market Maxis’
Closer to home, intraday activity remains tantalizingly opaque as Bitcoin bulls cling to some of the week’s upside.
Related: Bitcoin metrics print ‘mother of all BTC bullish signals’ for fourth time ever
However, two trips above $25,000 have not resulted in a resistance-support flip, and at the time of writing, BTC/USD was trading around $24,500, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed.
While Rekt Capital is celebrating a confirmed outbreak, others remain fearful that the entire episode has been the result of manipulation by market whales.
Analyzing the order book activity on Binance, resource material indicator monitoring appeared to be in no doubt about the false nature of the current price “strength”.
Whales have moved the bid support and moved higher, creating the illusion of a “bull market breakout”.
“We already have 2 rejections, so if they get it, that’s a bonus,” Material Indicators wrote if the twin moves over $25,000.
“IMO, the goal was to increase the distribution area and pass the ask liquidity on to the bull market maxis.”
An accompanying order book chart captured the action, along with whale volumes falling as the spot price rose — a phenomenon Material Indicators recently dubbed “whale divergence.”
The views, thoughts and opinions expressed herein are those of the authors alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.
