Bitcoin Could Take Eighteen Months To Reach $40,000 Mark If This Plays Out: Details
Another important element to consider in this scenario is the current macroeconomic environment
Bitcoin was last halved on May 11, 2020, yielding a block reward of 6.25 BTC. The aftermath of the record global market plunge in March 2020 saw Bitcoin trade around the $8,000 level at the latest halving event.
The price of Halvingen is historically at fair value.
Assuming fair value doesn’t move much lower, that would mean ~$40k in 18 months.#Bitcoin Value map of the chain: pic.twitter.com/qpoxoqE8He— Root 🥕 (@therationalroot) 9 October 2022
Using Bitcoin on-chain value map, on-chain analytics data focused Twitter account “Root” indicates that the price at the halving is at a historical fair value. According to the analysis, if the real value does not drop significantly, Bitcoin could reach around $40,000 in 18 months. Another important element to consider in this scenario is the current macroeconomic environment.
When Will Bitcoin Bottom?
Charles Edwards, CEO of Capriole, considered previous cycles to determine where BTC may ultimately bottom. Cryptoanalyst Will Clemente previously posted a graphic comparing the distance between Bitcoin’s all-time highs and subsequent macro lows. In both 2014 and 2018, Bitcoin established a macro bottom after its previous new all-time high in a predetermined time frame.
We are in the 90 day window where the last 2 Bitcoin cycles bottomed out
— Charles Edwards (@caprioleio) 10 October 2022
Referring to Clemente’s chart, Charles Edwards wrote, “We are in the 90-day window where the last 2 Bitcoin cycles bottomed out.”
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Bitcoin was trading at $19,400 at the time of writing, down 71% from a record high of around $64,000 set in November 2021, but still less compared to 2018, suggesting room for downside.
#Bitcoin | Losing the $19,000 support level could spell trouble!
— Ali (@ali_charts) 10 October 2022
Cryptanalyst Ali claims that Bitcoin needs to hold the $19K support level to avoid a sharp decline. At this price level, 1.3 million addresses have bought more than 680,000 BTC, and chain data indicates that there is little to no support below that.
Cryptoquant CEO Ki Young Ju believes that when significant USDC stablecoin flows into exchanges, the next bull run for Bitcoin may begin. This may indicate the emergence of “purchasing power” in the market.
According to him, 94% of the access on USDC is now held by non-exchanges, some of which are owned by major trading companies such as BlackRock, Fidelity and Goldman Sachs. However, crypto-native stablecoins like BUSD are currently flooding exchanges, which could indicate that some crypto-natives are hoarding some coins.
