Bitcoin could rise to $100,000 as crypto winter ends: Standard Chartered

• Bitcoin could rise to $100,000 by the end of 2024, according to a Standard Chartered note.
• This is due, among other things, to the banking crisis, the halving of bitcoin and the expected end of the Fed interest rate hikes.
• “While there are still sources of uncertainty, we believe the path to the $100,000 level is becoming clearer.”

Crypto winter has melted away and bitcoin is set to boom, a Standard Chartered note predicted on Monday.

The world’s largest digital currency by market capitalization could rise to $100,000 by the end of 2024, the bank said, representing a 268% increase from current levels.

“We see the potential for Bitcoin to reach the USD 100,000 level by the end of 2024 as we believe the much talked about ‘crypto winter’ is finally over,” wrote Standard Chartered’s Geoff Kendrick.

One of the reasons for the positive outlook is the turmoil caused by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank last month. As concerns about a banking contagion spread, bitcoin re-established its use case as a “decentralized, trustless and scarce digital asset,” according to the note.

At the same time, key rivals to bitcoin lost ground, especially stablecoins, some of which lost their link to the US dollar. In fact, some of the assets that supported the value were held in SVB.

“Against this backdrop, Bitcoin has benefited from its status as a branded safe haven, a perceived relative store of value and a means of money transfer,” Kendrick added.

Standard Chartered now sees bitcoin’s share of the total crypto market value rising to the 50%-60% range, up from 45% today and from 40% before the SVB collapse.

In addition, the note said bitcoin’s recent decline back above $30,000 also represented a turnaround for crypto miners, who had previously seen mining margins squeezed.

Bitcoin has since fallen below $30,000, but Kendrick said if prices remain well above mining costs ($15,000), miners are likely to hold onto what they mine rather than sell.

“This creates price upside, in our view. Additionally, with energy prices likely to have peaked, the structural profitability backdrop for miners should improve, adding further upside,” he wrote.

Bitcoin is also set to trade better in the future as the Federal Reserve nears the end of its tightening cycle, Kendrick said, noting that the correlation with the Nasdaq suggests the crypto should trade better if asset risk broadly improves.

Another tailwind is the coin’s upcoming halving in 2024, which is when the reward given to miners will be halved. This is to limit the supply of bitcoins, and has historically led to price increases.

Bitcoin may also see gains thanks to regulatory changes that promote investor access to the market – such as the creation of digital asset ETFs and stablecoin regulation. Already, some proposals that have been passed in Europe have positive implications for crypto volatility.

“While there are still sources of uncertainty, we believe the path to the $100,000 level is becoming clearer,” Kendrick said.