Bitcoin [BTC]: On paradigm shifts and the possibility of $100k

• BTC showed similar signs that helped it reach its recent ATH.
• Upward pressure increased as long-term holders reduced supply on exchanges.

Historically, the aftermath of each Bitcoin [BTC] halving sets the stage for the resurgence of a bull cycle. The last time something like this happened, the king coin rallied and hit an ATH of 69,000. However, BTC’s trend, shown in the first months of 2023, seems to have broken away from the usual preceding halving performance.

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Is Bitcoin halving the license to 100k?

Well, according to oinonen_t, one CryptoQuant analystone reason for the outstanding performance was the cryptocurrency’s divorce from correlation with the NASDAQ.

But more importantly, the analyst pointed out market behavior usually observed pre-halving was already in motion. This could make it easy for BTC to reach $100,000 after the halving.

Besides the disconnection from the traditional assets, oinonen_t noted that the market has been characterized by retail demand. He further mentioned that this was a similar situation that preceded the 2019 target of $46,093.

Source: CryptoQuant

An accumulation cycle denoted the level of purchase or demand for an asset. Distribution, on the other hand, shows the level of supply or sale of an asset. Therefore, the accumulation/distribution zone can be used to detect tops, bottoms and trend reversals.

The analysis also pointed to fee in relation to reward. This metric represents the percentage of fees earned from the block reward. Before BTC ATH, the fee-to-reward ratio reached 0.21 before the halving.

At press time it was heading towards 0.1. Therefore, oinonen_t expects the BTC value to recreate the 2019 target mentioned above before the end of 2023. This will then drive the scarcity triggered by the Bitcoin halving and the 3,125 BTC reward towards the $100,000 estimate.

The rear end and the eagerness to be in position

Interestingly, Glassnode’s data showed that BTC was far from overheated based on indications from the Pi cycle. The Pi cycle uses the 111-day moving average (MA), and twice the 350-day MA to measure cycle tops.

Source: Glassnode

However, since the 350-day MA (purple) crossed the 111-day (green), it means that BTC has yet to peak. This could prove beneficial to those who hoard Bitcoin.

In another CryptoQuant publication, onchained highlighted which Short Term Holders (STH) sold at the time of publication.

Source: CryptoQuant

Read Bitcoins [BTC] Price prediction 2023-2024

Also, Long Term Holders (LTH) may have bought the dip since the exchange supply was reduced. This can later lead to upward pressure on prices, as demand also increases. As with the recent events, the analyst pointed out,

“When Bitcoin rises from a lower price range ($27,500-27,800) to above $28,000, it may indicate that long-term owners have bought the dip and are removing Bitcoin from exchanges, leading to a reduction in available supply.”

It is necessary to note that this estimate contrasts with Balaji Srinivasan, who predicted that BTC could reach $1 million in less than three months.