Bitcoin [BTC]: A sell-off could be on the horizon, unless…

• Analysts agree that BTC could trade above $30,000 before a noticeable downside.
• Balaji’s $1 million prediction is unlikely, but short-term direction depends on the FOMC.

In 2022, several analysts gave their opinion at different intervals Bitcoin [BTC] hits the bottom. And on many occasions the royal coin did not agree with the analysts, although some issues such as the FTX collapse played a role in subsequent price falls.

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Fast forward to 2023. It might seem like some of these calls were wrong, as BTC had only been doing better. According to CryptoQuant analyst BaroVirtual, the state of the unused transaction age bands (UTXO) was instrumental in the progress recorded in the new year.

Can BTC Maintain the Green?

UTXO Age Bands summarize the behavior of short and long holders in view of the macro shift in influence among both parties. The said analyst that there was a bearish crossover between the 6 million to 12 million and 12 million to 18 million age groups. This was confirmed early on bullish signal before the press time reflection.

Source: CryptoQuant

An explanation of the above data points to the fact that new buyers within the longer UTXO age ranges have emerged. This advanced the position for a further long-term HODL and has helped to support the BTC price action.

However, BaroVirtual mentioned that BTC risks a bearish stance in the medium term. Although he pointed out that the sale may not happen until BTC reaches between $30,000 or $33,000 or in unusual circumstances, $37,000 to $40,000 in the region.

The analyst also defended his position by referring to the historically consistent bearish years and odd bullish seasons. Noting that he does not expect the potential second uptrend to be better than the first quarter, he stated:

“Bitcoin lives in 4-year cycles from one halving to another. An even year is a bear, and an odd year is a bull. Therefore, 2023 is bullish, but the second uptrend in the cycle is always weaker than the first; that is, the previous historical height has not been updated“

$30,000 or nothing because…

In another reference to historical data, Gigisulivan, another CryptoQuant analyst, pointed to the Short-Term Holder SOPR. This metric tracks coin movements and the status of investors who sell at a loss or profit.

The analyst noted that the calculation was at its highest point since November 2021. At press time, it was Short-term holder SOPR was 1,027. Since the value was above 1, it indicated that short-term investors were selling at a profit.

Source: CryptoQuant

Read Bitcoins [BTC] Price prediction 2023-2024

However, Gigisulivan added that upon exiting the bear market, the metric’s increase was a sign of a further uptrend rather than a decline. Like BaroVirtual, he also mentioned that BTC could rise above $30,000.

At the same time, he said $1 million 90-day Bitcoin prediction of Coinbase’s former CTO was unreachable. Meanwhile, the short-term BTC movement will also depend on the outcome of the FOMC meeting.