Arthur Hayes gives his timeline for the next crypto ‘mega upcycle’

Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes expects a risky crypto bull market between now and 2026.

Crypto mega up cycle

Speaking to New York Magazine (NYM), Hayes discussed, among other things, his early career at Deutsche Bank in Hong Kong, the founding of BitMEX and his indictment by the Department of Justice.

His view of the market and what is to come was particularly interesting. The former BitMEX CEO said, “each central bank will fix the price of its government bonds in the next 12 to 18 months.”

This event will trigger “the next mega-upcycle” for risky assets, which he predicts will end by 2026. Then there will be an economic collapse on the scale of the Great Depression of the 1930s.

“And that’s going to lead to the next mega-upcycle in all risk assets, and then we’re going to have a generational collapse. And that’s my view.”

Instead of dwelling on the gloom of his latest statement, Hayes talked about making the most of the coming boom by timing his trades between different seasons to maximize gains.

“I want to invest in deep tech and crypto that does decentralization and actually lives the vision of Satoshi’s white paper. And I’m going to invest in complete shitcoins. Because I think I can time the market and buy a narrative and sell when the narrative peaks.”

BitMEX’s fall

In May 2022, Hayes pleaded guilty to violating the US Bank Secrecy Act. He paid a $10 million fine and was sentenced to six months of house arrest, which he served from a Miami apartment overlooking Biscayne Bay.

Despite reportedly having restrictions on his movements, Hayes revealed that he was able to exercise outdoors, attend a nearby WeWork office and was sometimes let out for dinners.

Citing various industry figures, including Nic Carter, the co-founder of Castle Island Ventures, NYM pointed out that, unlike Sam Bankman-Fried, Hayes was never accused of stealing, lying or operating a fraudulent business.

“He didn’t follow rules that some say shouldn’t exist in the first place.”

Hayes and fellow co-founders Samuel Reed and Ben Delo stepped down from their positions in October 2020. At the time, BitMEX was among the top derivatives exchanges in terms of volume, but has fallen significantly due to what happened.

Today’s 24-hour volume was $373.86 million, a fraction of Binance’s $38.89 billion and oddly less than FTX’s $587.91 million.

Hayes said he has no plans to step back as the company’s CEO, but will retain a board membership. Some say that behind the scenes he is still in control.