Analyst on Bottom of $17.6K BTC Price: Bitcoin ‘Not There Yet’
Bitcoin’s (BTC) market behavior is not yet “synonymous” with previous bear market bottoms, claims one of the leading crypto analysts.
In a Twitter thread September 14, statistician Willy Woo, creator of the data resource Woobull, offered three examples of why BTC/USD should still have further to fall.
Despite many calling a new macro price bottom during June’s trip to $17,600, not everyone is confident that Bitcoin will avoid a retest.
For Woo, there’s still reason to believe that lower levels will mark the new price floor – and this could be anywhere, including under $10,000.
“Underwater” supply short from the bottom zone
A metric Woo flag is the percentage of the total BTC supply with a loss – now worth more than the price it last moved to.
In previous bear markets, price bottoms coincided with more than 60% of coins being underwater.
“When it comes to maximum pain, the market has not felt the same pain as previous bottoms,” he warned alongside a chart from research firm Glassnode in the chain.
According to that chart, 52% of supply is currently at a loss, and to reach the 60% mark, BTC/USD would need to drop to just $9,600.
Woo added that at the bottom of Bitcoin’s previous bear markets, supply at a loss “cleanly” broke through a long-term trend line, which has also yet to happen this time around.
Cost basis edges towards the goal zone
Another clear sign of the bottom of the Bitcoin market lies in the composition of the investor base – long-term (LTH) and short-term (STH) holders.
Normally at the bottom, STHs have a lower cost base than LTHs. This means that STHs paid less for their coins than LTHs, the latter defined as those holding BTC for 155 days or more.
– We are close, but not there yet. A little more time to burn IMO,” commented Woo.
Previously, David Puell, the creator of the Puell Multiple indicator, flagged differences in cost bases as an “interesting” factor for analysts to consider.
Accumulation not “synonymous” with history
In the end, hodlers big and small still need to rally harder, Woo concludes.
Related: BTC price clings to $20,000 as US stocks lose equivalent of 4 Bitcoin market caps
Alongside a Glassnode chart of bear market accumulation trends, he noted that BTC in 2022 has not flowed from sellers to “urgent” buyers at a similar rate as before.
“So far we haven’t had the levels of accumulation synonymous with previous bottoms,” he explained.
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