Analyst Benjamin Cowen says evidence suggests Bitcoin (BTC) is still moving lower ahead of new bull market
A widely followed crypto analyst says there is evidence that Bitcoin (BTC) may have much longer to fall before triggering another bull run.
In a new video update, prominent crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen tells his 784,000 YouTube subscribers that the largest crypto asset by market cap still has the potential to fall into the $10,000-$12,000 range before we see the next crypto bull market.
Based on his analysis of a variety of technical, chain-based and sentiment-based indicators, Cowen says that BTC is in position to potentially make a new low, just like how Bitcoin made a new floor after plunging below $18,000 last June.
“There is enough evidence to suggest that [Bitcoin] could go lower, so therefore I’m going to be open to the potential outcome, just as I was back in the summer when many said June was the bottom. A lot of people call June the bottom back then, and it wasn’t, right.”
According to Cowen, Bitcoin’s bottom could potentially even trade around the $10,000 level due to tapering losses, a concept that suggests BTC’s top-to-bottom decline is slowing with each cycle.
Cowen indicates that the last three times BTC witnessed a bear market, it fell at least 84% from its previous peak.
“We can go down to $10,000 or $12,000 and still have a diminishing loss. For us to go down 84% from the top, we have to go below $10,000 or so, so you still have some wiggle room around that level, you still have some wiggle room at a lower price and still technically cutting losses…
Ultimately, I think 2023 is just going to be a mildly choppy year, a recovery year, where we try to slowly recover and find a bottom somewhere, whether it’s $15,000 or a lower low, and then we build slowly out of it.”
Looking at historical data from late 2018, Cowen notes that Bitcoin’s bottom tends to correlate with the Federal Reserve’s terminal rate, or the final long-term interest rate the agency sets as its target.
“We know that last cycle Bitcoin bottomed when the Fed hit the terminal rate…Bitcoin bottomed [$3,000] when we hit the terminal rate, and when the Fed started to ease, Bitcoin went down again, but it made a higher low.”
Bitcoin is trading at $22,382 at the time of writing, up 9.37% in the last 24 hours.
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