Blockware Solutions 2023 Bitcoin Forecast – Bitcoin Magazine
Blockware Intelligence, the research arm of Blockware Solutions, has released its 2023 forecast, which among other things indicated that the bitcoin price bottom may soon be in.
The report included a larger macroeconomic overview and forecast, along with bitcoin’s response as well as on-chain indicators that suggest potential future movements. Short-term Owner Realized Price (STH RP), as indicated by the report, is a more volatile, fast-moving metric determined by the price of coins moved over a certain period of time, while Long-Term Owner Realized Price (LTH RP ) is a less volatile, stickier metric that determined by the price of coins that have been untouched for longer periods. When the price falls below the LTH RP, meaning most long-term owners are underwater, it often coincides with previous market lows. The report suggests that the price of bitcoin is likely to reverse both the LTH RP and STH RP, which it is currently below, which could signal the bottom of the bear market.
Source: Blockware Solutions
The report also noted the recent collapse of several exchanges, namely Celsius, BlockFi, and FTX, which has contributed to increasing self-storage of BTC. Bitcoin self-storage tends to increase prices as the price suppression potential created by exchanges is eliminated.
Source: Blockware Solutions
A large increase in the number of on-chain users of bitcoin is also predicted. In the previous 2018 cycle, the number of on-chain users growing at an increasing rate indicated the start of the bull run. We now again see a positive momentum shift in the number of units in the chain, suggesting increasing adoption and potential seeds for the next bull market.
Source: Blockware Solutions
In addition, it is suggested that current state-of-the-art ASICs, namely the S19XP, may retain their value longer than previous generations of ASICs, as manufacturers approach what is thermodynamically possible. This will have consequences for the price of ASIC and plans for future cash flows for miners.
This is also taken into account in the subsequent theory that Bitcoin hash rate growth will slow progress in 2023, noting three factors:
“1. ASIC commoditization
2. Lack of mining investment in 2022
3. Global energy crisis (lack of available cheap energy).”
Source: Blockware Solutions
The global energy crisis is further detailed – as regulators put more pressure on oil and hydrocarbon energy sources, driving up the price even further, miners with fixed power purchase agreements will be the ones insulated from this volatility.
The report concludes with the prediction that in 2023 the United States will be the top destination for bitcoin mining due to the strength of the dollar, the stability of energy prices here and the lesser effects of inflation in the country.
