Bitcoin Indicators Suggest Bottom Forming; Is A BTC Recovery Imminent?

As the entire cryptocurrency market continues to swim in a sea of ​​red, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) is struggling to stay above the critical psychological level of $16,000; However, some technical points suggest that a bottom is near, indicating an upcoming price rise.

In fact, after observing the Fibonacci-Dollar Cheat Sheet, the experts at TradingShot have noted the link between Bitcoin halvings, “the shock they fundamentally handle and have done so historically and the US Dollar Index,” according to their analysis published on November 20.

Past Time Fibonacci Patterns

First, the timing of the recoveries after halving has previously followed certain rules, or as TradingShot the team explained, “the price tends to increase aggressively after each halving (Fib 0.0) to Fib 0.236,” which is classified as the parabolic phase.

Furthermore, between Fib 0.236 and 0.382, Bitcoin usually makes the last rally and forms its Cycle Top. After this territory, Bitcoin enters the bear phase from Fib 0.382 to 0.5.

Ahead are the closing stages of the bearish phase, between Fib 0.5 and 0.618 (The Despair Phase), where Bitcoin is preparing for its final and most significant decline. Finally:

“From Fib 0.618 to 0.786, BTC traditionally forms the bottom of the cycle, signaling the end of the Bear Market. (…) From Fib 0.786 to 1.0 (next halving), BTC officially starts the new Bull Market.”

How the BTC floor is calculated

To calculate a potential bottom level, the team used the horizontal Fibonacci levels, measured “from the bottom of the Halving candle to the top of each cycle,” and which they derived:

“The first cycle bottomed after the 0.382 Fib break. The second cycle bottomed after the 0.5 Fib break (a Fib level lower than the previous cycle), while the current cycle has already broken the 0.618 Fib (a Fib level lower than the previous cycle ).”

Considering that the FTX-induced crisis and declines take place during the bottom formation phase, the cheat sheet indicates that the end of the phase is in May 2023.

The role of the dollar

The TradingShot Analysts also explained the major part that the USD plays in the entire calculation, considering that Bitcoin is valued in US dollars and that historically this means that “Bitcoin tends to rise when DXY falls.”

Specifically, Bitcoin bottomed out and started the 2020/2021 Parabolic rally after the USD stopped its previous run in March 2020, “right on the COVID crash. The previous USD peak was in December 2016, when Bitcoin was again in its ‘Parabolic Phase’ The USD’s previous peak was in March 2015, right at the start of the 2015 ‘bottom formation phase’.

When Will Bitcoin Recover?

To conclude:

“Whether the price rises now as in 2019 or towards the end of the phase as in 2015 remains to be seen, and certainly depends on many variable factors, most of which are fundamental. Stability in the stock market is definitely among the best.”

It is worth noting that the pseudonymous cryptanalyst Mustache also looking a bottom for Bitcoin is emerging, judging by the previous patterns of the price movements in the post-halving periods. According to this expert: